The NFL Combine is coming up later this month, and as you can see I'm pretty excited. The great part about the combine is that it can either introduce a player to the world (Chris Johnson and his 4.24 40, fastest ever at the combine), or expose a player's major flaw (William Moore, safety from Missouri, slow, bad hip movement, dropped from mid to late 1st to late 2nd). A round drop might not seem like much, but the jump from 1st to 2nd, or even early 1st to late 1st is the difference in millions of dollars, and the reverse is true as well. Darrius Heyward-Bey made millions more because of his 40 time (and Al Davis being a senile old man, but I digress). So the combine, while sometimes overvalued (Mike Mamula anyone?) it is still an important process for NFL scouts. So these are the players I see that can either move up with great performances, or drop far with bad ones.
Most to Gain:
Javier Arenas, CB, Alabama: Arenas had a tough time at the Senior Bowl. Even though he did well in man coverage, scouts came away unimpressed with his speed. If he can show up at the combine and run a 40 in the 4.3 range he should move up boards across the NFL. If he runs in the 4.4-4.5 range he will stay about where he is, so unless he really can't run and goes in the 4.6 range I think the only place he goes is up.
Chad Jones, S, LSU: Another player that will go up with a good 40 time, but more than that, coverage drills will really determine how far Jones can rise. Like Arenas he has shown good burst as a punt returner, but he has also shown big play ability on the field (vs. Miss. St e.g.) in many phases. If he shows good hip turn and vision, he could creep into the late 1st early 2nd, and possibly be the 4th safety taken. Jones could really shine and make a big impression.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, Oregon: Blount is most famous for punching Byron Hout after the Boise St. game this season, but before that incident he was a top rated RB in the draft. He made a strong comeback in the Rose Bowl, and then in the Senior Bowl. If he can perform well, and run fast, he can move himself back into the top 3 RBs in this years draft. He still might be the most talented back in the class, and this is his chance to prove it.
Sean Canfield, QB, Oregon St: Canfield looked sloppy in the Senior Bowl, and relied on the Rodgers brothers as playmakers during the past 2 seasons. Still, he possesses good accuracy, a quick release, and adequate arm strength. If he can show scouts that he has the ability to hit the 20 yard out and has good footwork, then he has a chance to go in the 3rd round range, far higher than the 5-6 range he's in now.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Arizona: This is a little bit of a conditional placement. He hurt himself this season, and in my research I wasn't able to find if he would be healthy enough to participate at the combine or not. If he can, then he really has a chance to shine. He won't be the fastest tight end, or the best blocker, but as a combo player he can be the best all around TE in the draft. If he shows up healthy and can do well in the drills I definitely see him going early in the 2nd round.
Most to Lose:
Taylor Mays, S, USC: Mays has been my favorite college player for the past 3 seasons. I love his hitting ability and instincts. However, the reason most NFL teams keep him as a first round grade is that they believe he is a physical freak that will run at least a 4.3 40 (supposedly he's been clocked at 4.25 at USC) and will bench 225 lbs around 20 times. His lack of interceptions and big plays in his career has led scouts to question his abilities. He has stayed so high on boards because of measurables, and if he doesn't live up he may freefall. However, I still believe he will be an impact player at SS in the NFL. His hitting power has never been questioned, and he showed in the Senior Bowl that when he isn't playing 20 yards deep he can make plays.
Dexter McCluster, RB, Ole Miss: The 5'8", 165 lb. RB is a playmaker. I've heard comparisons from Darren Sproles to Chris Johnson. McCluster needs 2 things to happen. He needs to have a good time in the 40, and more than anything he needs to pass his physical. If teams don't believe his body can pack on more pounds and still maintain his speed he may find himself falling down draft boards. His game breaking abilities can't be questioned, but his durability in the NFL will be.
Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama: Unlike his Crimson Tide counterpart Arenas, Cody has nowhere to go but down. He showed up to the Senior Bowl heavy and plodding, and continues to disappoint despite his enormous potential. I truly believe if he shows up to the combine above 380 lbs he may fall past the 2nd round. As well as his weight issues, he must show scouts he has the power to play a 0-technique in the 3-4. If he doesn't perform well in the bench press it might not matter what weight he shows up as. If Vernon Gholston can press 225 lbs 37 times then Cody better be able to put it up 30.
Earl Thomas, S, Texas: Anytime a redshirt sophomore declares for the draft the team meetings and interviews with a player are going to be key for his draft status. Did he come out because he's sick of playing for no pay, or because he truly believes that he is ready to compete at the next level? Can he play right away, or would if have benefited him to stay in school another year? Is he mature enough to mesh with an NFL locker room? While I think Thomas is a playmaker, in the same mold as Eric Berry (not in the same class, but the same mold), I'm not convinced that he is the mature player ready to lead a defense.
Mardy Gilyard, WR, Cincinnati: Gilyard is another player I truly enjoy watching. I'm not convinced that NFL teams believe that he isn't a product of the system. If he doesn't run a 4.4 or better at the combine I believe he slips from a 2nd round talent to a 4th round talent. Gilyard seems to find the soft spot in the zone, but in the NFL players are too fast to believe that he will consistently be open like he was at Cincy. Gilyard could defintely help himself by running in the 4.3-4.2 range, but if he goes over the 4.4 threshold, he will see himself drop on draft day.
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I would like to think that Tim Tebow has the most to gain from the combine, but since everyone has already made up their mind about him one way or the other, it'll probably be all for naught. I've heard a bunch of people say he would be a great TE or outside linebacker, and that's true; he'd be great at any position that he decides to play. I still see him as a quarterback though.
ReplyDeleteSee, he doesn't have the most to gain at the combine because it's all about measurables and comparisons to peers. In my 23 years, I've never seen anyone with his intangibles. He is great, and he is in my QB mold of win in college, win in the pros, but that's not the issue here. Tebow will be criticized for his long delivery and poor dropback skills. The Florida pro day is when he will show what he has, not at the combine.
ReplyDeleteThat's why I hate the combine: the fact that it's all about measureables and comparisons to other players. Honest to God, there is no reason that running a 4.33 should be treated any differently than a 4.30, but yet some cornerback will drop several spots because of .03 of a second. To me, the only "measureables" that really matter are the ability to win. Tim Tebow has the ability to win; so did Emmitt Smith, Joe Montana, and (somehow) Kurt Warner.
ReplyDeleteI'm not disagreeing with you on that, just being realistic. The idea behind the combine is that if 2 players are comparable on the field, then the one with the better measureables should be better in the NFL. However, that idea becomes skewed too often that speed and strength are too important. My job is to try and realize what scouts will say and go from there, at least in this article.
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