The Middle First Round Blues

So I have been working on a theory about the first round of the NFL Draft. The middle picks, between 11 and 21, are the worst places to pick skill position players. Initially I developed this theory under the belief that players who are drafted in these spots have some sort of flaw that is exposed with these teams. A top 10 pick is likely talented, driven, and intelligent. A pick that falls out of that area has either been overvalued by the combine, or is being drafted more on potential and upside than on actual ability. This is especially true at positions where 40 times and cone drills are more important. So I did a little research, and found that QBs, RBs, and TEs were hit or miss. There were some gems, like Ben Roethlisberger and Shaun Alexander, and some mid level talents, but the WR class was well, disappointing. Since 2000 there have been 11 WRs taken between picks 11 and 21, and there were a total of 2 Pro Bowls. For reference, here is a list of each position and who was taken.

QB:
Boller
Cutler
Flacco
Freeman
Pennington
Roethlisberger

RB:
Alexander
Dayne
Duckett
Green (William)
Lynch
Maroney
Moreno
Stewart (Jonathan)

WR:
Clayton (Michael)
Evans
Gardner (Rod)
Johnson (Bryant)
Jones (Matt)
Maclin
Morris (Sylvester)
Moss (Santana)
Stallworth
Walker

TE:
Graham
Franks
Pettigrew
Shockey

Perhaps some of those guys were victim of circumstance or injury, but if I'm a GM or Scouting Director, I think twice about pulling the trigger on one of those guys before I know exactly why they fell to me. Players in that range make too much money to be mistakes, and players can be found too easily later in the draft to expect to keep a job with that kind of blunder.