Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Blockbuster Trade Thoughts

So the MLB Hot Stove has officially heated up with the 4 team trade between the Phillies, Mariners, A's, and Blue Jays. The details of the trade are here: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4744730

So the first question is who made out best in this deal. Well for my money it has to be the Blue Jays. They got 2 top 50 prospects and a need position minor leaguer for a guy who didn't want to be there plus $6 million in cash. Drabek is one of the top pitching prospects out there, Brett Wallace can play both corner infield positions, and if d'Arnaud can hit .250 with 60 RBIs he'll be worth it. Halladay is a great pitcher, but he's 32, wanted tons of money, and was asking to be traded because he didn't want to be a part of a rebuilding team anymore.

The Phillies made out the 2nd best in the deal by getting a top end pitcher signed to a long term deal as well as 3 decent prospects from Seattle. While I don't know how long Halladay can continue to pitch at the level he is at, the underrated portion of this deal is that Lee is only a year younger. Halladay's experience in the brutal AL East will prepare him for just about anything the NL can throw at them. I'm not too familiar with the Seattle farm system, but if the prospects the Phillies get turn out anything like the ones the Orioles got in the Erik Bedard trade, the Phils will be set for a while.

Seattle seems to think they came out the best in this trade, and for the next season they probably did, but they continue to mortgage their future to gain a short term advantage. The 1-2 punch of Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee will make the AL West uneasy, but without a solid offense they can't really compete with the elite of the AL. Not to mention they are getting a 31 year old pitcher who has only had 2 good seasons ever (granted, they were the past 2, but still, if he falls back into his old form I wouldn't be completely shocked). The other problem with Lee is that there is almost no chance they can resign him next season. He wants to test free agency and get CC Sabathia money, which the Mariners most likely can't afford. So they are renting a pitcher for the season, and anything short of a World Series will be a disappointment. They will be lucky to just make the playoffs.

Oakland completes the trade by acquiring Michael Taylor for Brett Wallace. This trade seems just completely pointless. The A's need help and both the corner infield positions (Eric Chavez is getting old and isn't that good anymore, and their first basemen is non-existent) and in the OF, but why get involved in a trade that doesn't really benefit you at all. If their prospect was necessary for all parties involved to go ahead with the trade, then they just made Seattle better this season, Toronto better for the future, and they stayed about even. It just seems pointless to ever intentionally help another team get better without you doing the same. Some trades make sense when each team has a surplus of talent in one area and a void somewhere else, but when you have 2 voids and you fill one by hurting the other it's just pointless.

Overall the trade is really the biggest one I can remember in MLB in my lifetime. 2 Cy Young winners traded places along with 3 of the top 50 prospects from mlb.com. I'm excited to see what will happen next season when all the pieces get put in to place. Can Roy Halladay win 25 games in the NL? Will Cliff Lee be the piece that vaults Seattle to the top of a weak AL West? How long until the pieces Toronto acquired begin to make an impact at the major league level? Will Billy Beane make me look like a jackass after this season or in the future? I can't wait to find out.