So I have been working on a theory about the first round of the NFL Draft. The middle picks, between 11 and 21, are the worst places to pick skill position players. Initially I developed this theory under the belief that players who are drafted in these spots have some sort of flaw that is exposed with these teams. A top 10 pick is likely talented, driven, and intelligent. A pick that falls out of that area has either been overvalued by the combine, or is being drafted more on potential and upside than on actual ability. This is especially true at positions where 40 times and cone drills are more important. So I did a little research, and found that QBs, RBs, and TEs were hit or miss. There were some gems, like Ben Roethlisberger and Shaun Alexander, and some mid level talents, but the WR class was well, disappointing. Since 2000 there have been 11 WRs taken between picks 11 and 21, and there were a total of 2 Pro Bowls. For reference, here is a list of each position and who was taken.
QB:
Boller
Cutler
Flacco
Freeman
Pennington
Roethlisberger
RB:
Alexander
Dayne
Duckett
Green (William)
Lynch
Maroney
Moreno
Stewart (Jonathan)
WR:
Clayton (Michael)
Evans
Gardner (Rod)
Johnson (Bryant)
Jones (Matt)
Maclin
Morris (Sylvester)
Moss (Santana)
Stallworth
Walker
TE:
Graham
Franks
Pettigrew
Shockey
Perhaps some of those guys were victim of circumstance or injury, but if I'm a GM or Scouting Director, I think twice about pulling the trigger on one of those guys before I know exactly why they fell to me. Players in that range make too much money to be mistakes, and players can be found too easily later in the draft to expect to keep a job with that kind of blunder.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Monday, February 22, 2010
Saturday, February 20, 2010
Random Thoughts
First things first, I'll say something about Tiger Woods. He is in my life because he is the greatest golfer in the world, and I enjoy being a terrible golfer. His endorsement of certain products has no effect on my decision to buy them. I don't have Nike clubs or spikes. I drink Gatorade when it sounds good, and the Tiger version is awful. So if he cheats on his wife with 15 women, or whatever it is, it's none of my concern. Perhaps if I had impressionable kids I might worry, but really, all he is now is a cautionary tale. I didn't wake my tired ass up and watch the press conference. I got the ESPN News update on my phone, which was more than enough. Unless he is announcing that he'll be returning for the Master's, I don't care. It just seems silly to worry about something that doesn't impact anything I care about.
Onto the Olympics, where the USA just wrapped up a thrilling 5-3 win over Canada. Ryan Miller played his butt off in goal and had to be the first star of that game. Rafalski and Drury were absolutely integral to the success of the team, but without Miller saving 42 of 45 shots they would have been done for. If they USA hopes to advance to the gold medal game they are going to have to play better and keep the puck out of their own zone. They got lucky on a couple goals and were really outplayed for most of the game. Still, an exciting victory for the young team that should propel them onward. Aside from that, my prediction for the medal count isn't looking so hot. I really didn't expect the US team to be so good at this point. They have really stepped up to the challenge. It is now possible for the US to lead the total medal counts in both summer and winter games. Depressing for the rest of the world.
Pitchers and catchers have reported to spring training, and with that the speculation has begun on the next season. As an Orioles fan I have continued to look to next season, but this may finally be "next" season. If the young pitching on the roster can develop behind Milwood and Guthrie, it isn't beyond them to move into 3rd place in the AL East. Asking to win a World Series with this roster is a little much, but getting above or around .500 isn't. They have an extremely talented outfield with Markakis, Jones, and Reimold, a solid middle infield, and the best catching prospect in the majors. Their corner defense may be suspect, but if Garrett Atkins can't play well enough, Ty Wigginton has shown the ability to play well every day. I really think Andy McPhail has done an excellent job constructing a team, hopefully he isn't canned before being able to see it to fruition.
Onto the Olympics, where the USA just wrapped up a thrilling 5-3 win over Canada. Ryan Miller played his butt off in goal and had to be the first star of that game. Rafalski and Drury were absolutely integral to the success of the team, but without Miller saving 42 of 45 shots they would have been done for. If they USA hopes to advance to the gold medal game they are going to have to play better and keep the puck out of their own zone. They got lucky on a couple goals and were really outplayed for most of the game. Still, an exciting victory for the young team that should propel them onward. Aside from that, my prediction for the medal count isn't looking so hot. I really didn't expect the US team to be so good at this point. They have really stepped up to the challenge. It is now possible for the US to lead the total medal counts in both summer and winter games. Depressing for the rest of the world.
Pitchers and catchers have reported to spring training, and with that the speculation has begun on the next season. As an Orioles fan I have continued to look to next season, but this may finally be "next" season. If the young pitching on the roster can develop behind Milwood and Guthrie, it isn't beyond them to move into 3rd place in the AL East. Asking to win a World Series with this roster is a little much, but getting above or around .500 isn't. They have an extremely talented outfield with Markakis, Jones, and Reimold, a solid middle infield, and the best catching prospect in the majors. Their corner defense may be suspect, but if Garrett Atkins can't play well enough, Ty Wigginton has shown the ability to play well every day. I really think Andy McPhail has done an excellent job constructing a team, hopefully he isn't canned before being able to see it to fruition.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
10 Potential Draft Busts
The last post I mentioned 5 players that I thought could be had later in the draft that would be steals. And the Universal law of drafting states that for every sleeper, there are 2 busts to fill his place. Busts come in all shapes and sizes (double entendre) and this list is no different. Some players have maturity issues, some have injury issues, and others are just overrated. The beauty of a bust is that often times the situation they get drafted in has just as much to do with their failings as their own abilities. Still, these are the guys I feel have the highest likelihood of going in the first 2 rounds and not panning out.
1. Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
I've previously documented my disdain for Clausen's NFL abilities. His likelihood of going to an NFL team with a poor O-line is high, and his ability to stare down the rush and deliver is poor. He has a duck for a deep ball and I'm not convinced he's that great of a leader. Notre Dame QBs have a long history of not living up to their hype (Montana excluded) and that trend will continue. I may cry if Denver takes him.
2. Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
Morgan is a different type of DE, a guy who isn't flashy and can hold the edge on the run and can get to the QB on passes. However, his streaky nature worries me too much to have him as a top 10 talent like I see everywhere else. He disappears from some games, including many away games. He tallied 9 sacks at home, 3 on the road, and 2 of those 3 were against Duke and Virginia. He lacks an it factor that I like to see from a top 10 guy. He may be a decent player, but he won't be worth the money he gets this season.
3. Terrence Cody, NT, Alabama
Another guy with well documented bust potential. He is the best when he wants to be, but that desire seems to come and go. Issues with weight will not only cause a lack of playing time if he cannot stay in shape, but could lead to injuries down the road. He seems like the kind of player who will either put it all together early in his career and dominate the game (think Vince Wilfork), or a guy who will get every opportunity and fail to meet expectations. It's all in his hands.
4. Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma St.
Bryant is by far the most talented WR in this years draft. That being said, the combine will be important for him to see what kind of shape he has kept himself in, and where his mind is at after being suspended for the Deion Sanders fiasco. (Small sidenote, how does this kid lose his eligibility by talking to Deion, yet there are no ramifications for Sanders. He started controversy with the whole adopting Noel Devine thing, and now this. Until a guy turns pro, Sanders should have no contact with players.) Bryant is big, with good hands and decent speed. If he puts it together mentally then there's no reason for him to be on this list.
5. C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
Spiller is not one of my favorite players. He has blazing speed, good agility, and incredible burst. However, I wonder about his vision and durability. He may also struggle to get playing time if he doesn't learn how to pass block. Spiller does have talent, and should be a much better value if he falls to the 2nd round, but most places have him as a mid 1st rounder, and I don't believe he's worth it.
6. Earl Thomas, S, Texas
A member of my most to lose group at the combine, Thomas will need to prove some people wrong. As the questions mount, his ability to handle them will be important. This is the time of year where he will face the most scrutiny. He has gobs of talent, but so do most guys in the NFL. It's what you do with that talent that matters.
7. Arrelious Benn, WR, Illinois
A fringe 1st rounder, Benn is just a player I'm not big on. He had a very bad season after a 1000 yard campaign in 2008. He is a player I want on my team in Madden for his speed and size, but not in real life. I'm not sure about his hands or his ability to run routes. The combine will be good for him if he can show a good understanding of his position. However, I just don't believe Benn will be anything more than a decent slot receiver, and not a Brandon Stokley/Wes Welker type, but a Shaun McDonald type.
8. Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida
Another player who had a turd of a season after a fantastic 2008. Spikes went from being a lock top 10 player last season to being in danger of falling to the 2nd round. The defense remained intact from last season, but Joe Haden became the best player on that defense and Spikes dropped down. Why? Was 2009 just a blip in the radar, or an indication of things to come? Spikes has the size and speed of an NFL linebacker, but does he have the instincts? He is a high risk, high reward type of player.
9. Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
Davis is someone that was seen as a mid 2nd rounder that suddenly burst into the top 10 of all the mock drafts and big boards of guys. This always befuddles me around draft time. Someone suddenly moves up on big boards and becomes the it thing (hello Vernon Gholston) yet never pans out. That's where I see Davis going. He's at best a RT in the NFL, and really, do you need to spend a top 10 pick on someone who is a liability in pass protection? I say no. As far as I'm concerned he's a smaller, quicker Phil Loadholt. Maybe late 1st, early 2nd, but if he gets put at LT in the NFL I think he suffers a Robert Gallery fate.
10. Taylor Mays, S, USC
Yes, he's my boy, and yes, I believe that he can be a beast in the NFL. However, the realist in me knows that if he gets put in the wrong system, one that requires him to play too much man coverage on slot WRs and TEs. He needs to play a deep zone and be allowed to make the big hit. In college teams weren't as willing to go deep on him, I believe in the NFL they will, and he will rise to the occasion. However, he could definitely be a bust if put in a bad situation.
1. Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
I've previously documented my disdain for Clausen's NFL abilities. His likelihood of going to an NFL team with a poor O-line is high, and his ability to stare down the rush and deliver is poor. He has a duck for a deep ball and I'm not convinced he's that great of a leader. Notre Dame QBs have a long history of not living up to their hype (Montana excluded) and that trend will continue. I may cry if Denver takes him.
2. Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
Morgan is a different type of DE, a guy who isn't flashy and can hold the edge on the run and can get to the QB on passes. However, his streaky nature worries me too much to have him as a top 10 talent like I see everywhere else. He disappears from some games, including many away games. He tallied 9 sacks at home, 3 on the road, and 2 of those 3 were against Duke and Virginia. He lacks an it factor that I like to see from a top 10 guy. He may be a decent player, but he won't be worth the money he gets this season.
3. Terrence Cody, NT, Alabama
Another guy with well documented bust potential. He is the best when he wants to be, but that desire seems to come and go. Issues with weight will not only cause a lack of playing time if he cannot stay in shape, but could lead to injuries down the road. He seems like the kind of player who will either put it all together early in his career and dominate the game (think Vince Wilfork), or a guy who will get every opportunity and fail to meet expectations. It's all in his hands.
4. Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma St.
Bryant is by far the most talented WR in this years draft. That being said, the combine will be important for him to see what kind of shape he has kept himself in, and where his mind is at after being suspended for the Deion Sanders fiasco. (Small sidenote, how does this kid lose his eligibility by talking to Deion, yet there are no ramifications for Sanders. He started controversy with the whole adopting Noel Devine thing, and now this. Until a guy turns pro, Sanders should have no contact with players.) Bryant is big, with good hands and decent speed. If he puts it together mentally then there's no reason for him to be on this list.
5. C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
Spiller is not one of my favorite players. He has blazing speed, good agility, and incredible burst. However, I wonder about his vision and durability. He may also struggle to get playing time if he doesn't learn how to pass block. Spiller does have talent, and should be a much better value if he falls to the 2nd round, but most places have him as a mid 1st rounder, and I don't believe he's worth it.
6. Earl Thomas, S, Texas
A member of my most to lose group at the combine, Thomas will need to prove some people wrong. As the questions mount, his ability to handle them will be important. This is the time of year where he will face the most scrutiny. He has gobs of talent, but so do most guys in the NFL. It's what you do with that talent that matters.
7. Arrelious Benn, WR, Illinois
A fringe 1st rounder, Benn is just a player I'm not big on. He had a very bad season after a 1000 yard campaign in 2008. He is a player I want on my team in Madden for his speed and size, but not in real life. I'm not sure about his hands or his ability to run routes. The combine will be good for him if he can show a good understanding of his position. However, I just don't believe Benn will be anything more than a decent slot receiver, and not a Brandon Stokley/Wes Welker type, but a Shaun McDonald type.
8. Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida
Another player who had a turd of a season after a fantastic 2008. Spikes went from being a lock top 10 player last season to being in danger of falling to the 2nd round. The defense remained intact from last season, but Joe Haden became the best player on that defense and Spikes dropped down. Why? Was 2009 just a blip in the radar, or an indication of things to come? Spikes has the size and speed of an NFL linebacker, but does he have the instincts? He is a high risk, high reward type of player.
9. Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
Davis is someone that was seen as a mid 2nd rounder that suddenly burst into the top 10 of all the mock drafts and big boards of guys. This always befuddles me around draft time. Someone suddenly moves up on big boards and becomes the it thing (hello Vernon Gholston) yet never pans out. That's where I see Davis going. He's at best a RT in the NFL, and really, do you need to spend a top 10 pick on someone who is a liability in pass protection? I say no. As far as I'm concerned he's a smaller, quicker Phil Loadholt. Maybe late 1st, early 2nd, but if he gets put at LT in the NFL I think he suffers a Robert Gallery fate.
10. Taylor Mays, S, USC
Yes, he's my boy, and yes, I believe that he can be a beast in the NFL. However, the realist in me knows that if he gets put in the wrong system, one that requires him to play too much man coverage on slot WRs and TEs. He needs to play a deep zone and be allowed to make the big hit. In college teams weren't as willing to go deep on him, I believe in the NFL they will, and he will rise to the occasion. However, he could definitely be a bust if put in a bad situation.
Sunday, February 14, 2010
5 NFL Draft Sleepers
The NFL draft is always full of guys with lots of potential and physical gifts that need to be coached into being stars at the next level (Mario Williams). They also have players that have maxed out their potential in college and don't have any real way to grow (Jason White). Often times these are the two groups that will fall in the draft, but provide a late round steal if they fit into the right system. In this day of advanced scouting and medical testing, teams are drafting better and late round steals and undrafted free agents aren't setting records. However, there is still a great deal of talent out there, and with the limit of 7 rounds, some guys get passed over or go late that may really be sleepers. Here is a list of guys that probably won't go until at least round 3 that I think could be real NFL stars someday. This list will be updated until the draft as players move up and down boards.
1. Antonio Brown, WR, Central Mich.
Brown is a guy who always seemed to be there in that CMU offense. He had almost 1200 yards this season, and over 3000 for his 3 year career. He had a huge bowl game, 13 catches for 178 and 4 carries for 22 yards and a TD. He can also return punts and kicks, giving him added value at the next level. He may fall into the lower rounds, but any team that gets him will be lucky to have him. He's not a big possession receiver or a blazer, but he plays well and helped his team go 12-2 this season.
2. Myron Rolle, S, Florida St.
Rolle is a sleeper because he spent the last year being a Rhodes Scholar as opposed to playing major college football. He's obviously smart and should be able to pick up any defensive scheme in the NFL. He has good height and weight for a safety, and depending on his speed at the combine could be a man on the rise. He may take some time to get back into football shape depending on what happened in England. He looked good but not great at the Senior Bowl, but good be a steal for a team patient enough with him.
3. Damion Fletcher, RB, Southern Miss.
Another productive college player that will get overlooked by teams because of his size. Fletcher probably doesn't have a very long shelf life in the NFL, but has good enough vision to make an impact for a team for the time he stays there. Running back is one of the few positions where late round vs early round means very little in terms of pro success, and of the later round guys I like Fletcher the best.
4. Joe Webb, WR/QB, UAB
Webb is a tough guy to get a handle on. He's 6'4", fast, and seems to be a playmaker. However, teams are seeing him as a WR after he played QB in college. That transition doesn't always work out well. Matt Jones was a bust, Antwan Randel El has been OK, but not spectacular and Pat White refused to switch and got killed the last game of the season. I doubt Webb gets drafted as high as any of those guys. However, with his size and speed, if he were able to learn the WR position he could turn into a solid pro, so long as he doesn't develop a coke problem.
5. Stevenson Sylvester, OLB, Utah
A guy who created havoc a year ago against Alabama didn't have a chance to show off like he did last year, but had a solid season. He is a little small for an OLB, but with some NFL strength training I think he could be a factor. He doesn't wow people in any physical way, but it seems any Utah game you watch you hear his name being called an awful lot in plays. Give him the chance to roam and play he could develop into a good starter.
1. Antonio Brown, WR, Central Mich.
Brown is a guy who always seemed to be there in that CMU offense. He had almost 1200 yards this season, and over 3000 for his 3 year career. He had a huge bowl game, 13 catches for 178 and 4 carries for 22 yards and a TD. He can also return punts and kicks, giving him added value at the next level. He may fall into the lower rounds, but any team that gets him will be lucky to have him. He's not a big possession receiver or a blazer, but he plays well and helped his team go 12-2 this season.
2. Myron Rolle, S, Florida St.
Rolle is a sleeper because he spent the last year being a Rhodes Scholar as opposed to playing major college football. He's obviously smart and should be able to pick up any defensive scheme in the NFL. He has good height and weight for a safety, and depending on his speed at the combine could be a man on the rise. He may take some time to get back into football shape depending on what happened in England. He looked good but not great at the Senior Bowl, but good be a steal for a team patient enough with him.
3. Damion Fletcher, RB, Southern Miss.
Another productive college player that will get overlooked by teams because of his size. Fletcher probably doesn't have a very long shelf life in the NFL, but has good enough vision to make an impact for a team for the time he stays there. Running back is one of the few positions where late round vs early round means very little in terms of pro success, and of the later round guys I like Fletcher the best.
4. Joe Webb, WR/QB, UAB
Webb is a tough guy to get a handle on. He's 6'4", fast, and seems to be a playmaker. However, teams are seeing him as a WR after he played QB in college. That transition doesn't always work out well. Matt Jones was a bust, Antwan Randel El has been OK, but not spectacular and Pat White refused to switch and got killed the last game of the season. I doubt Webb gets drafted as high as any of those guys. However, with his size and speed, if he were able to learn the WR position he could turn into a solid pro, so long as he doesn't develop a coke problem.
5. Stevenson Sylvester, OLB, Utah
A guy who created havoc a year ago against Alabama didn't have a chance to show off like he did last year, but had a solid season. He is a little small for an OLB, but with some NFL strength training I think he could be a factor. He doesn't wow people in any physical way, but it seems any Utah game you watch you hear his name being called an awful lot in plays. Give him the chance to roam and play he could develop into a good starter.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Predictions
So on the advice of someone with a much more popular blog than mine, I'm going to start posting more often. So keep reading everyone. Right now we're coming into the heart of the NBA and NHL seasons, the Olympics are starting, March Madness is a month away, and the draft is just around the corner. So with all that said, I've decided to make some predictions about all these things. Right or not, I stand by my predictions.
1. The NBA Finals: Lakers vs Cavs
2. Lakers in 6
3. The NHL Finals: Caps vs Blackhawks
4. Caps in 5
5. Canada will win the most medals in the Olympics
6. Germany will be 2nd, Norway 3rd, US 4th
7. No team will collect more the 40 total medals
8. America will win a curling medal (by far the best sport no one else like)
9. At least one team seeded 14 or higher will win a game in the NCAA tournament
10. The Final Four will be Kansas, Villanova, Michigan St., and Georgetown
11. The title game will be Kansas vs. Georgetown
12. Kansas wins
13. Ndamukong Suh will be the first overall pick
14. Sam Bradford will be the first QB taken
15. Tim Tebow will not be a first round pick
16. The Big 12 and SEC will have at least 16 players drafted in the first round, dominating every other conference.
So there is my Sweet 16, hopefully at least one of them comes true.
1. The NBA Finals: Lakers vs Cavs
2. Lakers in 6
3. The NHL Finals: Caps vs Blackhawks
4. Caps in 5
5. Canada will win the most medals in the Olympics
6. Germany will be 2nd, Norway 3rd, US 4th
7. No team will collect more the 40 total medals
8. America will win a curling medal (by far the best sport no one else like)
9. At least one team seeded 14 or higher will win a game in the NCAA tournament
10. The Final Four will be Kansas, Villanova, Michigan St., and Georgetown
11. The title game will be Kansas vs. Georgetown
12. Kansas wins
13. Ndamukong Suh will be the first overall pick
14. Sam Bradford will be the first QB taken
15. Tim Tebow will not be a first round pick
16. The Big 12 and SEC will have at least 16 players drafted in the first round, dominating every other conference.
So there is my Sweet 16, hopefully at least one of them comes true.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
NFL Combine: 5 Players Who Have The Most To Gain or Lose
The NFL Combine is coming up later this month, and as you can see I'm pretty excited. The great part about the combine is that it can either introduce a player to the world (Chris Johnson and his 4.24 40, fastest ever at the combine), or expose a player's major flaw (William Moore, safety from Missouri, slow, bad hip movement, dropped from mid to late 1st to late 2nd). A round drop might not seem like much, but the jump from 1st to 2nd, or even early 1st to late 1st is the difference in millions of dollars, and the reverse is true as well. Darrius Heyward-Bey made millions more because of his 40 time (and Al Davis being a senile old man, but I digress). So the combine, while sometimes overvalued (Mike Mamula anyone?) it is still an important process for NFL scouts. So these are the players I see that can either move up with great performances, or drop far with bad ones.
Most to Gain:
Javier Arenas, CB, Alabama: Arenas had a tough time at the Senior Bowl. Even though he did well in man coverage, scouts came away unimpressed with his speed. If he can show up at the combine and run a 40 in the 4.3 range he should move up boards across the NFL. If he runs in the 4.4-4.5 range he will stay about where he is, so unless he really can't run and goes in the 4.6 range I think the only place he goes is up.
Chad Jones, S, LSU: Another player that will go up with a good 40 time, but more than that, coverage drills will really determine how far Jones can rise. Like Arenas he has shown good burst as a punt returner, but he has also shown big play ability on the field (vs. Miss. St e.g.) in many phases. If he shows good hip turn and vision, he could creep into the late 1st early 2nd, and possibly be the 4th safety taken. Jones could really shine and make a big impression.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, Oregon: Blount is most famous for punching Byron Hout after the Boise St. game this season, but before that incident he was a top rated RB in the draft. He made a strong comeback in the Rose Bowl, and then in the Senior Bowl. If he can perform well, and run fast, he can move himself back into the top 3 RBs in this years draft. He still might be the most talented back in the class, and this is his chance to prove it.
Sean Canfield, QB, Oregon St: Canfield looked sloppy in the Senior Bowl, and relied on the Rodgers brothers as playmakers during the past 2 seasons. Still, he possesses good accuracy, a quick release, and adequate arm strength. If he can show scouts that he has the ability to hit the 20 yard out and has good footwork, then he has a chance to go in the 3rd round range, far higher than the 5-6 range he's in now.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Arizona: This is a little bit of a conditional placement. He hurt himself this season, and in my research I wasn't able to find if he would be healthy enough to participate at the combine or not. If he can, then he really has a chance to shine. He won't be the fastest tight end, or the best blocker, but as a combo player he can be the best all around TE in the draft. If he shows up healthy and can do well in the drills I definitely see him going early in the 2nd round.
Most to Lose:
Taylor Mays, S, USC: Mays has been my favorite college player for the past 3 seasons. I love his hitting ability and instincts. However, the reason most NFL teams keep him as a first round grade is that they believe he is a physical freak that will run at least a 4.3 40 (supposedly he's been clocked at 4.25 at USC) and will bench 225 lbs around 20 times. His lack of interceptions and big plays in his career has led scouts to question his abilities. He has stayed so high on boards because of measurables, and if he doesn't live up he may freefall. However, I still believe he will be an impact player at SS in the NFL. His hitting power has never been questioned, and he showed in the Senior Bowl that when he isn't playing 20 yards deep he can make plays.
Dexter McCluster, RB, Ole Miss: The 5'8", 165 lb. RB is a playmaker. I've heard comparisons from Darren Sproles to Chris Johnson. McCluster needs 2 things to happen. He needs to have a good time in the 40, and more than anything he needs to pass his physical. If teams don't believe his body can pack on more pounds and still maintain his speed he may find himself falling down draft boards. His game breaking abilities can't be questioned, but his durability in the NFL will be.
Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama: Unlike his Crimson Tide counterpart Arenas, Cody has nowhere to go but down. He showed up to the Senior Bowl heavy and plodding, and continues to disappoint despite his enormous potential. I truly believe if he shows up to the combine above 380 lbs he may fall past the 2nd round. As well as his weight issues, he must show scouts he has the power to play a 0-technique in the 3-4. If he doesn't perform well in the bench press it might not matter what weight he shows up as. If Vernon Gholston can press 225 lbs 37 times then Cody better be able to put it up 30.
Earl Thomas, S, Texas: Anytime a redshirt sophomore declares for the draft the team meetings and interviews with a player are going to be key for his draft status. Did he come out because he's sick of playing for no pay, or because he truly believes that he is ready to compete at the next level? Can he play right away, or would if have benefited him to stay in school another year? Is he mature enough to mesh with an NFL locker room? While I think Thomas is a playmaker, in the same mold as Eric Berry (not in the same class, but the same mold), I'm not convinced that he is the mature player ready to lead a defense.
Mardy Gilyard, WR, Cincinnati: Gilyard is another player I truly enjoy watching. I'm not convinced that NFL teams believe that he isn't a product of the system. If he doesn't run a 4.4 or better at the combine I believe he slips from a 2nd round talent to a 4th round talent. Gilyard seems to find the soft spot in the zone, but in the NFL players are too fast to believe that he will consistently be open like he was at Cincy. Gilyard could defintely help himself by running in the 4.3-4.2 range, but if he goes over the 4.4 threshold, he will see himself drop on draft day.
Most to Gain:
Javier Arenas, CB, Alabama: Arenas had a tough time at the Senior Bowl. Even though he did well in man coverage, scouts came away unimpressed with his speed. If he can show up at the combine and run a 40 in the 4.3 range he should move up boards across the NFL. If he runs in the 4.4-4.5 range he will stay about where he is, so unless he really can't run and goes in the 4.6 range I think the only place he goes is up.
Chad Jones, S, LSU: Another player that will go up with a good 40 time, but more than that, coverage drills will really determine how far Jones can rise. Like Arenas he has shown good burst as a punt returner, but he has also shown big play ability on the field (vs. Miss. St e.g.) in many phases. If he shows good hip turn and vision, he could creep into the late 1st early 2nd, and possibly be the 4th safety taken. Jones could really shine and make a big impression.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, Oregon: Blount is most famous for punching Byron Hout after the Boise St. game this season, but before that incident he was a top rated RB in the draft. He made a strong comeback in the Rose Bowl, and then in the Senior Bowl. If he can perform well, and run fast, he can move himself back into the top 3 RBs in this years draft. He still might be the most talented back in the class, and this is his chance to prove it.
Sean Canfield, QB, Oregon St: Canfield looked sloppy in the Senior Bowl, and relied on the Rodgers brothers as playmakers during the past 2 seasons. Still, he possesses good accuracy, a quick release, and adequate arm strength. If he can show scouts that he has the ability to hit the 20 yard out and has good footwork, then he has a chance to go in the 3rd round range, far higher than the 5-6 range he's in now.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Arizona: This is a little bit of a conditional placement. He hurt himself this season, and in my research I wasn't able to find if he would be healthy enough to participate at the combine or not. If he can, then he really has a chance to shine. He won't be the fastest tight end, or the best blocker, but as a combo player he can be the best all around TE in the draft. If he shows up healthy and can do well in the drills I definitely see him going early in the 2nd round.
Most to Lose:
Taylor Mays, S, USC: Mays has been my favorite college player for the past 3 seasons. I love his hitting ability and instincts. However, the reason most NFL teams keep him as a first round grade is that they believe he is a physical freak that will run at least a 4.3 40 (supposedly he's been clocked at 4.25 at USC) and will bench 225 lbs around 20 times. His lack of interceptions and big plays in his career has led scouts to question his abilities. He has stayed so high on boards because of measurables, and if he doesn't live up he may freefall. However, I still believe he will be an impact player at SS in the NFL. His hitting power has never been questioned, and he showed in the Senior Bowl that when he isn't playing 20 yards deep he can make plays.
Dexter McCluster, RB, Ole Miss: The 5'8", 165 lb. RB is a playmaker. I've heard comparisons from Darren Sproles to Chris Johnson. McCluster needs 2 things to happen. He needs to have a good time in the 40, and more than anything he needs to pass his physical. If teams don't believe his body can pack on more pounds and still maintain his speed he may find himself falling down draft boards. His game breaking abilities can't be questioned, but his durability in the NFL will be.
Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama: Unlike his Crimson Tide counterpart Arenas, Cody has nowhere to go but down. He showed up to the Senior Bowl heavy and plodding, and continues to disappoint despite his enormous potential. I truly believe if he shows up to the combine above 380 lbs he may fall past the 2nd round. As well as his weight issues, he must show scouts he has the power to play a 0-technique in the 3-4. If he doesn't perform well in the bench press it might not matter what weight he shows up as. If Vernon Gholston can press 225 lbs 37 times then Cody better be able to put it up 30.
Earl Thomas, S, Texas: Anytime a redshirt sophomore declares for the draft the team meetings and interviews with a player are going to be key for his draft status. Did he come out because he's sick of playing for no pay, or because he truly believes that he is ready to compete at the next level? Can he play right away, or would if have benefited him to stay in school another year? Is he mature enough to mesh with an NFL locker room? While I think Thomas is a playmaker, in the same mold as Eric Berry (not in the same class, but the same mold), I'm not convinced that he is the mature player ready to lead a defense.
Mardy Gilyard, WR, Cincinnati: Gilyard is another player I truly enjoy watching. I'm not convinced that NFL teams believe that he isn't a product of the system. If he doesn't run a 4.4 or better at the combine I believe he slips from a 2nd round talent to a 4th round talent. Gilyard seems to find the soft spot in the zone, but in the NFL players are too fast to believe that he will consistently be open like he was at Cincy. Gilyard could defintely help himself by running in the 4.3-4.2 range, but if he goes over the 4.4 threshold, he will see himself drop on draft day.
Sunday, February 7, 2010
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