A Look Back at February's Predictions

So back in February I made 16 predictions about the upcoming sports scene. And while a few aren't over yet, most of them are, so I figured I would take a look and see how well I did.

1. NBA Finals: Lakers vs Cavs

I got this half right, the Lakers are back in the finals. Unfortunately LeBron and the LeBronettes couldn't do enough to continue their regular season success going. The Lakers dominated the Western Conference and turned up the heat when they needed to.

2. Lakers in 6

Still Waiting...

3. NHL Finals: Caps vs Blackhawks

Again, half right, except for the next part.

4. Caps in 5

Screw you Montreal.

5. Canada will win the most medals in the Olympics

Nope, but they did win the most gold medals with 14.

6. Germany will be 2nd, Norway 3rd, US 4th

Germany was 2nd, Norway 4th, and the US 1st.

7. No one will collect more than 40 total medals

Correct, the highest was the USA with 37.

8. America will win a curling medal

Probably my worst prediction. America got destroyed and looked terrible. I may actually try out for the curling team to avoid such an embarrassment in 2014.

9. At least one team seeded 14 or higher will win a game in the NCAA tournament

Correct again, except that it was Ohio, who beat Georgetown, which ruins a prediction later.

10. The Final Four will be Kansas, Villanova, Georgetown, Michigan St.

This was doomed from the start, considering 3 of the 4 teams were in the same region. But to be fair, Michigan St. was the least likely of the 4 and it came through.

11. The title game will be Kansas vs Georgetown

Couldn't happen, but to be fair, they lost in rounds 2 and 1 respectively. Guess I'll try again next year, yuck.

12. Kansas Wins

No they don't.

13. Ndamukong Suh will be the first overall pick

Close, he went second to the Lions. However he will still be the best DT to come out of college since Warren Sapp, at worst.

14. Sam Bradford will be the first QB taken

Correct, and he was also taken first overall, ruining the above prediction. Remember, before this people still believed in Jimmy Clausen, except me.

15. Tim Tebow will not be a first round pick

No Comment

16. The Big 12 and SEC will have at least 16 players drafted in the first round

Correct, 16 on the dot. That was probably the most difficult prediction of the bunch and I got it right. I'm proud of that.

Outside Contribution From Curt Kuntz

Recently I was tagged in a note on facebook by Curt, who wrote an article dealing with labor issues in the NFL and I enjoyed it. I figured I would offer to share it on here, and he accepted, so here is the unedited copy:

I love pro football. I love the big hits, the great catches, the dominant offensive lines, the weekly upsets, the playoffs, and the draft. I love fantasy football to a nearly unhealthy level. I even love the beer commercials.

Amidst all this, it’s easy to forget the way that the NFL is structured on a fundamental level. Every one of the 32 teams is a business entity with employees (players), supervisors (coaches), and consumers (fans). The teams compete against each other, yet they also act in their own collective interests in marketing, bargaining with the players, and negotiating television deals.

Right now, in the offseason, it’s easy to get caught up in the speculation of what will happen when a star quarterback joins a new team (Donovan McNabb), how an extra pass rusher could improve an already stalwart defense (Sergio Kindle), or the impact of a dynamic new wide receiver on a previously average passing attack (Anquan Boldin). However, there are a few issues related to the collective bargaining agreement that always arise this time of year. The way that fans, sportswriters, ESPN talking heads, and even the players themselves react to those issues demonstrates a serious misunderstanding of the NFL’s status as a business in a capitalistic society.

Tom’s World Cup analysis has inspired me to contribute my two cents on a few of these issues. The rest of this note is just background for the other three. The first is about voluntary workouts, the second is on holdouts, and the third on how fans should think about a potential 2011 lockout. I wrote it as one document that was way too long for a Facebook note. These are all still pretty long, so no offense taken if you don’t read them.

All three of these issues are fundamentally about NFL labor relations. The National Football League Players Association is easily the weakest of the three major team sports. Baseball’s strength is due to historic reasons (Curt Flood and the damage to MLB after the 1994 strike). The NBA has the second most powerful union due to its reliance on the marketability of star players. The NFLPA’s weakness is largely the result of the allegiance of fans to teams rather than individual players. If Larry Fitzgerald were to leave the Cardinals for some reason, their fans would be bummed, but they’d still be Cardinal fans. Steve Nash, on the other hand, is far more important to the Suns’ profitability.

The collective bargaining agreements in these three sports reflect the strength of their unions. Baseball has no salary cap and no maximum salaries, as the payrolls of the Yankees and Red Sox continue to attest. The NBA has a soft salary cap with maximum salaries and a luxury tax. The NFL is the only one of the three major leagues with a hard salary cap (although the upcoming season is technically an “uncapped year”), a factor that significantly constrains player salaries. The NFLPA’s weakness is even more noteworthy due to the NFL’s current status as the most popular and profitable of the three sports. The larger context of NFL labor relations has a lot to due with the three issues that the other notes are about.

Michael Wilbon said today on “Pardon the Interruption” that OTA’s should be made illegal. He didn’t elaborate, but I share his frustration. These are voluntary workouts, but most coaches act is if they are actually mandatory. Coaches who criticize and demote players for failing to show up are praised for toughness, while players who work out on their own (and spend time with the families they are away from most of the season) rather than showing up are denounced as selfish and lazy.

Why are these OTA’s technically voluntary while training camp in the summer is technically mandatory? It’s because that is the way the collective bargaining agreement is structured. These provisions were negotiated through tough bargaining sessions. Concessions were given in one area at the expense of another, compromises were arrived at, and a deal was struck. Owners could have convinced the NFLPA to make May OTA’s mandatory, but they would have had to give ground in another area such as salaries or pensions. When people treat voluntary workouts as mandatory they are attacking both the rights of the players as employees and the integrity of the bargaining process.

The worst is when the players themselves criticize teammates for not coming to workouts. Phillip Daniels of the Redskins recently made some newsworthy comments about Albert Haynesworth’s absence at Redskins workouts.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfceast/post/_/id/14008/is-redskins-dt-albert-haynesworth-a-bad-teammate

I’m guessing Daniels never stopped to think about how his comments hurt his union’s bargaining position, and by extension, his own bargaining position. If I were NFLPA Executive Director DeMaurice Smith, I would immediately have been on the phone giving Daniels an earful about union solidarity. In any normal business interaction, voluntary means voluntary. If players are willing to treat May workouts as mandatory, they need to inform their union representatives that they are willing to make that concession in exchange for gains in other areas.

The issue of OTA’s is closely related to holdouts. Players who hold out for new contracts are often labeled as greedy. Today’s “Around the Horn” included the perpetually ignorant Bill Plaschke going off on Andre and Chris Johnson, saying that players today don’t respect the meaning of signing on the dotted line. As a rule, I never pass up a chance for a good Plaschke-bash.

Players hold out because their collective bargaining agreement allows them to do so. Baseball and basketball players don’t hold out because their CBA’s are structured differently. The trade-off is that while players can hold out when their performance exceeds their salary levels, teams can cut players to avoid paying underperformers. As a result, NFL contracts are often described in terms of how much money is guaranteed rather than total salary. Baseball and basketball players, however, have their entire contracts guaranteed. That’s why David Ortiz is still with the Red Sox and Gilbert Arenas is still with the Wizards.

Not only is the hold out/cut trade-off another collectively bargained issue that gets to the heart of players’ rights and the integrity of the bargaining process, it is a trade-off that actually benefits the owners and reflects the NFLPA’s relative weakness. Given the choice, baseball and basketball owners would surely take the NFL system if they could. The ability to dump bad salaries and tie wages closely to performance is something that business owners in all industries value very highly.

Furthermore, while teams can cut players at will, players who take advantage of their right to hold out are not even in a strong position. Just ask Anquan Boldin. The holdouts face the possibility of losing a year’s worth of income (think about that, how would you like to forgo a year’s worth of your earnings?) in careers that are incredibly short. The teams, on the other hand, have the option of simply replacing the holdout with the next best player at his position on the roster. Of course it looks bad to the average fan when wealthy professional football players refuse to play unless they are paid more. However, if you give it any thought at all (not Bill Plaschke’s strength), it’s apparent that the players are exercising a well-deserved right.

The perception of player salaries is going to have a major impact on the possibility that football fans everywhere are dreading…a 2011 lockout. The effects of the national recession and highly publicized player conduct issues have the owners smelling blood in the water. Public opinion affects professional sports collective bargaining more than perhaps any other industry in the private sector. Fans are apt to blame rich athletes for any work stoppages despite the fact that the other side, the owners, is a collection of multi-millionaires and sometimes billionaires.

First of all, of course it is not morally justifiable that next year Brandon Marshall will make about 200 times as much money than the average teacher or social worker. However, these athletes are paid so handsomely because they collectively generate hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue every year. You might not like it, but such are the vagaries of a capitalistic society. Furthermore, if you really want to talk about fairness, professional athletes are far from the most egregious example. Think about the investment bankers who, for purely their own financial gain, utilized questionable tactics that brought our entire economy to the brink of collapse. The vast majority of those people retain highly compensated jobs to this day.

While we’re at it, let’s consider the minimum of three years that football players must spend in college, generating millions for their universities without any pay other than a scholarship for their efforts. When college students in any other industry work in their fields prior to graduation, they have the opportunity to obtain compensation for the fruits of their labor.

Consider as well the chances that professional athletes have taken. They dedicate untold amounts of time, blood, and sweat for the slim chance that they will make it. For every Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, there are literally thousands of athletes who gave it their all but fell short. While the players are working hard for their chance at the big show they are forgoing opportunities to enhance their earning potentials in other more stable fields.

Professional football players are unique among athletes in the physical price that they pay to play the game. Some of the stories about the disabilities and deformities that result from years of gladiator-like combat are jarring, and the long-term health effects are undeniable.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16932731

The NFL owners, to their discredit, have largely ignored the health of retired players. Players receive virtually no support in terms of caring for football-related injuries after the League is finished with them. Mike Ditka has led some excellent advocacy efforts aimed at changing the system but has only obtained vague promises to examine at the issue from the Commissioner. The health risks are one of the reasons that players get paid as much as they do. It’s called a compensating wage differential and we’ve known about it for 234 years.

I previously mentioned the short career length of NFL players. The average career lasts between 2 and 4 years. Therefore, even though these players have devoted their entire lives to playing football and have been lucky enough to make it to the NFL, they will only draw these large salaries for a short amount of time.

So let’s do the math. Would you be willing give herculean efforts throughout your entire youth for a slim chance of making a couple million dollars per year (taxed of course at 35% federally plus any state income taxes) for only a few years, knowing that the rest of your life afterwards may well be filled with significant physical pain? Maybe you would make that choice due to the draw of fame and love of the game. However, the fact that the question can legitimately be asked says something about where public sympathies should lie in labor disputes pitting professional athletes against far richer owners. Hopefully there will be no work stoppage, but keep that in mind if there is.

So that wraps it up. Sorry for the length. Stay tuned for a possible future rant on how we might finally get a college football playoff no matter what the NCAA says. Oh, and for God’s sake can we please get an NFL team in LA?

Draft Grades

First things first, Lloyd's mock draft beat mine, but with as bad as we both did I wouldn't say either of us is terribly proud. There was a lot of maneuvering by teams and a few big surprises. With a draft this deep teams had very different boards and grades for players. So without further ado, here are the 2010 draft grades for every team.

Arizona Cardinals: A-
Best Pick: Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee
Worst Pick: Andre Roberts, WR, Citadel
The Cardinals had a very solid draft, with Roberts being the worst pick but not really being a bad pick. They probably could have had a better player here and waited to get Roberts, but they know what they want in the position and should develop him. Williams was a steal at 26, and Skelton might end up being the best pick they made.

Atlanta Falcons: C-
Best Pick: Dominique Franks, CB, Oklahoma
Worst Pick: Corey Peters, DT, Kentucky
I was really less than impressed with the Falcons draft. Weatherspoon was a good but not great pick, but not a great value at 19. After that I didn't like a single pick till Franks, then they got a good slot WR in Meier. They took guards with consecutive picks, but really needed to get better value when players were falling.

Baltimore Ravens: A+
Best Pick: Sergio Kindle, OLB/DE, Texas
Worst Pick: Ed Dickson, TE, Oregon
One of the best drafts hands down. They were able to trade down and still get a bunch of solid players. Kindle in the 2nd is a steal, and with Suggs to teach him, he could definitely develop into the best pass rusher in the draft. Put Cody on that D-line on first and second down and let him clog up. Dickson is the worst pick only because they got a better player in Pitta the next round and didn't need to take him that high.

Buffalo Bills: B
Best Pick: Marcus Easley, WR, UConn
Worst Pick: Alex Carrington, DE, Arkansas St
With Colt McCoy still sitting there at 72 you choose Alex Carrington? I'm alright with them passing on Clausen because I think he's a bum, but this team desperately needed a QB before the 7th round. They had their pick of McCoy, Pike, Lefevour, Skelton, or any other player. However, they got a group strong players in Troup, Wang, and Moats that should help their 3-4 transition.

Carolina Panthers: B-
Best Pick: Tony Pike, QB, Cincinnati
Worst Pick: Armanti Edwards, WR/QB, Appalachian St
I won't put Clausen as the worst pick because they were able to get him in the 2nd round at a much better value, even though I still think he's a 5th rounder. Pike is one of my favorite QBs because of his size and toughness. Edwards is gonna take a long time to develop as a third round pick, and even though he beat Michigan, the adjustment from 1-AA to the NFL will be tough. Still I hope he succeeds. Norwood and Hardy could be good, and if Hardy plays like his sophomore and junior years, he could be a steal in the 6th.

Chicago Bears: D-
Best Pick: Corey Wootton, DE, Northwestern
Worst Pick: Joshua Moore, CB, Kansas St
The Bears somehow managed to not have a single pick until the 3rd round in the deepest draft since probably 1983. They got Major Wright, who is a good player, but had they had some other picks they could have had someone like Taylor Mays or Chad Jones. Wootton was a good pick in the 4th, but will struggle to see the field with Julius Peppers there. I'm not a big fan of Joshua Moore, and with so many other CBs available I'm curious as to what the Bears saw.

Cincinnati Bengals: B+
Best Pick: Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
Worst Pick: Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida
Love Gresham to the Bengals. I think they had a pretty solid draft all around, and found so good steals. I just don't like that they spent a second rounder on Carlos Dunlap, who fits as a 3-4 DE more than a 4-3 DE, and the Bengals play a 4-3 defense. Brandon Ghee late in the 3rd could play very well in nickel, and keep an eye on Rod Muckelroy. He isn't a great athlete, but he plays hard and makes plays.

Cleveland Browns: C
Best Pick: Joe Haden, CB, Florida
Worst Pick: T.J. Ward, S, Oregon
Who is T.J. Ward? After Jarius Byrd and Patrick Chung came out, I didn't think I'd see another safety drafted this high from Oregon. From the little bit I know about him, he doesn't play the pass well, and has injury issues. What exactly jumps out about him. In the box safeties are really 1 or 2 down players, and when you draft that high in the 2nd, do you really want that kind of player? Haden was an underrated pick after a bad combine. Still, the tape shows a guy who isn't afraid to jump the route or hit a RB. He's the closest player to Champ Bailey I've seen in terms of the ability to play both pass and run. Colt McCoy could develop here, but boy there isn't a worse place to go for a rookie QB. Poor guy doesn't stand a chance.

Dallas Cowboys: A-
Best Pick: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma St
Worst Pick: Jamar Wall, CB, Texas Tech
Dez Bryant is a beast, and if they can keep him out of trouble, they just got one of the 5 best players in the draft at 27. I really liked their first 3 picks. Sean Lee will be a good ILB in their scheme and should pile up tackles year after year. Akwasi Owusu-Ansah has size, speed, and agility that showed at the combine, and could really turn into a great pro. (Even though WCU WR Mike Washington, my former neighbor, put up 5 catches for 87 yards and 2 TDs vs him) Jamar Wall is the worst pick, but in the 6th round that's not really deal, which is why the Cowboys got a high grade. They would have gotten an A or A+ with more picks, but 6 won't cut it when 3 of them are in rounds 6 and 7.

Denver Broncos: C-
Best Pick: Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
Worst Pick: Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
As you can tell, there is some indecision about the stunning first round pick of Tim Tebow by the Broncos. I love that it will bring such a positive influence into the locker room, along with a winning attitude and a desire for the game. I have trouble dealing with the fact that the 25th overall pick probably won't play for at least 2 years. Josh McDaniels has a pair of balls on him. Anyone willing to assume they have the job security to develop a player this early in the job without winning anything has some serious belief in themselves. I'm not a huge Demaryius Thomas fan, or a fan of only taking one defensive player before the seventh round. We still need a linebacker, but the Perrish Cox and Syd'Quan Thompson picks are solid. Eric Decker could develop really nicely into a number 2 receiver. Also, got the J.D. Walton pick right, which makes me happy.

Detroit Lions: B-
Best Pick: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
Worst Pick: Jason Fox, OT, Miami(FL)
The Lions get an A+ for their first 3 picks on Suh, Best, and Spievey, but a D for the rest of them. I'm not a big Jason Fox fan, as Jason Worilds was able to soundly handle him in their games. They could have found a better value for OT there, and needed to find a better pass blocker to protect Stafford. Suh is the best player in the draft by far, and the Lions had to take him. He should make the defensive line one of the best in the NFL.

Green Bay Packers: B+
Best Pick: Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
Worst Pick: Mike Neal, DT, Purdue
The Packers had the fortune of having one of the top OTs in the draft free fall all the way to them at 23. They snatched him up, and should be able to find a place for him to start immediately. He should eventually develop into at worst a good RT, and at best a Pro Bowl LT. I thought they missed on taking Neal when Terrence Cody was there and picked right after him. I don't know if they plan to move him to DE in the 3-4, or if they think he can really be a NT, but I don't see him. I like Burnett and Quarless, and will be interested to see James Starks development behind Grant. I think he could be a fantasy sleeper this year.

Houston Texans: B
Best Pick: Dorin Dickerson, TE, Pittsburgh
Worst Pick: Earl Mitchell, DT, Arizona
Thought the Texans addressed their biggest need in the first round with Kareem Jackson and found a good zone blocking RB in Ben Tate in the second. I thought they could have waited on a DT considering they have other needs. Dickerson is a fantastic athlete that should really help improve their already great offense. I thought they needed to find a safety in the draft and they didn't. Their picks were pretty good, but they could have filled other needs.

Indianapolis Colts: C
Best Pick: Jerry Hughes, DE, TCU
Worst Pick: Jacques McClendon, OG, Tennessee
The Colts got some good players in their first 3 picks, but then really dropped off after that. Hughes should learn from Freeney, Angerer could fit into the Tampa 2 well, and Thomas should find a role early on in nickel. I just thought that even though they were a Super Bowl team, they really needed some help on the O-Line earlier in the draft and failed to grab anyone. They always seem to find one or two gems, so I'm probably wrong.

Jacksonville Jaguars: F
Best Pick: Austen Lane, DE, Murray St
Worst Pick, Tyson Alualu, DT/DE, California
The worst draft in the NFL this season belongs to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The only redeeming pick is Austen Lane, a potential late second/early third rounder that they got in the fifth round. Tyson Alualu went way too high, as did the rest of their picks. I don't think more than 3 of their picks will be on the roster after next season. Whoever is making the decisions in this organization needs to be fired.

Kansas City Chiefs: B+
Best Pick: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
Worst Pick: Dexter McCluster, RB/WR/RS, Ole Miss
Scott Pioli made the right choice by going with Eric Berry over any OT or any other position here. He is the 2nd best player in this draft behind Suh, and should be one of the top safeties in the league within 2 years. McCluster is the worst pick only because there is no need for him here. They have 2 good backs in Charles and Jones, so why use an early second round pick on a returner, and then take another returner in Javier Arenas next. The rest of the picks are solid, so they may be putting the pieces together.

Miami Dolphins: A-
Best Pick: Koa Misi, OLB, Utah
Worst Pick: Nolan Carroll, CB, Maryland
I liked the Dolphins first 4 picks to go along with Reshad Jones in the fifth round. I wasn't blown away by the Odrick pick because I'd like to see him in the 4-3, but I know I'm the minority there. John Jerry should be a perfect Parcells lineman who will slide into guard and likely start right away. Misi will immediately come in and provide a pass rush that left with Porter and Taylor.

Minnesota Vikings: C-
Best Pick: Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford
Worst Pick: Chris Cook, CB, Virginia
I was less than impressed with the Vikings draft when they were in a position to really set themselves up for continued success. The didn't bother to take a QB, even though they had plenty of opportunity to do so. Guys like Pike, Lefevour, and Robinson were all available in the sixth round, but they took Joe Webb, who projects as a WR more than a QB. I like the Gerhart, Griffin, and Webb picks, but didn't like any others. Chris Cook got drafted way too high based on his combine performance. I don't think he'll do much of anything.

New England Patriots: A-
Best Pick: Rob Gronkowski, TE, Arizona
Worst Pick: Jermaine Cunningham, DE/OLB, Florida
With 12 total picks the Patriots just reloaded their team with solid players and some players likely to start right away. Gronkowski is one of my favorites in the draft, and McCourty fits the Patriot mold of shorter, athletic CBs with good ball skills. The rest of the picks are very good players, including Taylor Price, who could really be a great WR in the league. I didn't think Cunningham was that good, and going in the second round was a stretch. Spikes is slow, but so was Jerod Mayo, and we saw how that worked out for them. So maybe they can put those two together for a top ILB duo.

New Orleans Saints: B
Best Pick: Charles Brown, OT, USC
Worst Pick: Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida St
Loved every pick in their draft except Patrick Robinson, and you really can't get above a B unless you nail your first round pick. They could have used a LB/DE like Sergio Kindle, but decided to take another CB high in the draft. Jimmy Graham was one of my sleeper picks, and now having 2 Miami(FL) TEs on their team they should be able to give Brees more targets. Charles Brown should provide extra depth on the line, and at the end of the second round he was a huge steal.

New York Giants: B-
Best Pick: Chad Jones, S, LSU
Worst Pick: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, USF
Another DE to the Giants? This pick really confused me considering they have Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Kiwanuka. He has some character issues on top of being a project and a poor run defender. His skills are undeniable, but he has a long way to go before he is more than a pass rusher. I love Chad Jones, and think he can start even in that strong secondary. Linval Joseph is a good player who really moved up draft boards towards the end of the process. He should contribute a lot, and possibly start by season's end. The rest of the draft is alright, nothing special, but they did get bench press king Mitch Petrus, who put up 45 reps of 225 at the combine.

New York Jets: C+
Best Pick: Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise St
Worst Pick: Joe McKnight, RB, USC
The Jets clearly valued their board over need with the picks they made. Kyle Wilson was an absolute steal at pick 29 as was Vlad Ducasse at 61. McKnight will fill the hole Leon Washington left, but I don't believe he's quite as good at his best as Washington. John Conner was the best FB in the draft and should see the field in heavy packages early for the Jets. With only 4 picks like the Bears, it's tough to give them a good grade in such a deep draft.

Oakland Raiders: B+
Best Pick: Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama
Worst Pick: Jacoby Ford, WR, Clemson
I am convinced Al Davis was locked out of the war room until the third day. They made the right pick in McClain, got good value from Houston, and got a potential book-end tackle in Veldheer. They took Bruce Campbell like everyone thought, but not until the fourth round where the tape said he should go. Jacoby Ford is just a poor man's Darrius Heyward-Bey, which is not a good thing. They really did a better job than I expected.

Philadelphia Eagles: A-
Best Pick: Nate Allen, S, USF
Worst Pick: Mike Kafka, QB, Northwestern
With 13 picks the Eagles really found a way to move around and still get a ton of talented players. Graham is a fantastic player that will make an impact quickly on the D-line. Nate Allen is a smart, instinctive player who will probably start on day 1 for the Eagles. They really went after smart, high motor guys in the draft. I think taking Kafka in the fourth was dumb, possibly shaking the confidence of newly appointed starter Kevin Kolb by having someone breathing down his neck. Their seventh round was easily the best of anyone in the draft with Chaney, Owens, and Coleman.

Pittsburgh Steelers: C
Best Pick: Antonio Brown, WR, CMU
Worst Pick: Emmanuel Sanders, WR, SMU
How did the Steelers take Sanders in the third and Brown in sixth? It seems like it should be reversed. Pouncey was a good pick for a team that will need to run for the first 6 games this season without Roethlisberger. I would have a higher grade for them if they didn't draft 3 OLB on a team with stars at the position already. They have no place to put all these guys. Dwyer could be the perfect compliment to Mendenhall and my guy Worilds should help out somewhere.

San Diego Chargers: B-
Best Pick: Cam Thomas, DT, UNC
Worst Pick: Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno St
Matthews goes down as the worst pick because of where he was taken, not because of his ability. He was a late first round talent that got taken 12th because of some fear that he wouldn't last. However this was a deep RB class, and taking a RB later and another player at their spot would have been smarter. I really like Donald Butler and Cam Thomas to improve their weakening defense. Butler is athletic just like Phillips and Merriman, and Thomas is the prototype of a NT who could develop with some coaching. The rest of the draft is a little blah.

San Francisco 49ers: B
Best Pick: Taylor Mays, S, USC
Worst Pick: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
I have made no bones about my love of Taylor Mays. He got fortunate to go play for a guy like Mike Singletary, who will bring out the best in him. Pairing a big hitter like Mays with a playmaker like Goldson will be a solid group. A lot of people liked this draft more than I did, but I just don't think Davis will be as good as the 11th pick in the draft. Especially with the work ethic issues he might not have been worth moving up to get. Iupati will be a stud so long as he doesn't move out to tackle. He grabs too much and will get called for holding trying to catch up to faster DEs. Bowman will help compliment the defense, and Anthony Dixon saves this draft because he's my favorite RB of the group.

Seattle Seahawks: A
Best Pick: Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma St
Worst Pick: E.J. Wilson, DE, UNC
The Seahawks really had a great draft, getting Okung with the 6th pick was a nice treat, and having Thomas there at 14 was even nicer. Then a stud WR in Golden Tate falls to them in the second, where they probably couldn't have been happier to see him. They took some risks with Anthony McCoy, but only with a sixth rounder (any idiot who tests positive for marijuana at the combine, the biggest job interview of their life, needs a serious mental evaluation). Dexter Davis could come in and help with pass rushing at DE in 3rd down, which is nice from a seventh rounder. This draft is really made with the first 3 picks and depth later.

St. Louis Rams: B+
Best Pick: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
Worst Pick: Hall Davis, DE, ULL
Bradford was the pick for a team desperately in need of a QB since Kurt Warner left. They can build around him for the years to come. Without the injury he might have been an even easier selection, but was still easily the best QB in the draft. I really liked Jerome Murphy in the third round as well. Along with Bradford they also got my 11th best player in George Selvie in the seventh round. I know I definitely had him higher than everyone else, but he plays the pass and run effectively, and I would have preferred to see him play OLB in a 3-4, but his motor should earn him a spot this season. Their worst pick could have been any number of guys from rounds five to seven that likely won't contribute at all.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: B-
Best Pick: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
Worst Pick: Mike Williams, WR, Syracuse
The Bucs had an easy decision to make at number 3 overall with McCoy on the board. He is the closest thing to Warren Sapp that has come out since Sapp himself. I like the players after McCoy that the Bucs got, but not necessarily for them in particular. They took back to back DTs and will sink a lot of money into the position, but I had Price as a first round grade, so I can't complain that they got him in the second. Benn is not my favorite WR, but he is a big, strong target for Josh Freeman. Mike Williams is a bad pick for this young team because he just quit on his college team. He has some bad character issues, and bringing that presence into the locker room could cause a mutiny (pun intended). Watson and Grimm should be nice special teamers from the get go.

Tennessee Titans: C+
Best Pick: Damian Williams, WR, USC
Worst Pick: Alterraun Verner, CB, UCLA
The Titans had a very strange draft. They took Derrick Morgan, who seems to be the perfect fit for their defense, and then got Damian Williams, who should help Vince Young and be a productive player. They also got Rennie Curran, an overachieving LB who will find a way to play somehow. Then they pick a so-so CB, and throw away picks on Rusty Smith, Marc Mariani and David Howard. Myron Rolle will be interesting to see in the Titans defense, where I think he will be able to compete for a job. I still wonder if he will be in football shape in time to make an impact. I thought the Titans could have done a much better job than they did.

Washington Redskins: D
Best Pick: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
Worst Pick: Anyone else
The Redskins are allergic to holding on to their higher picks in the draft. Like the Bears and Jets before them they screw themselves out of the best draft in years. While the Skins had more picks than both, they only had 1 pick in the first 3 rounds. They had a first, fourth, sixth, and 3 seventh round picks. That's not enough to grow this team. Williams should fit well in Shanahan's scheme, but other than that Perry Riley and maybe Selvish Capers are the only players with legit shots at being on the 2011 roster. Not the worst draft, but one of them.

Final Mock Draft, plus Lloyd'

One note before unveiling the mock drafts. This year will see the most number of players invited to the NFL Draft ever. It sounds great, until you realize that at least 2 of the players have 2nd round grades from most reputable sources. Brandon Ghee and Lamarr Houston are going to be sitting in Radio City Music Hall all night. The worst part is, if they don't get picked in the first round, they have to go back and wait another day. It just seems cruel. However, whoever told them it was a good idea needs some adjusting too, because that advice is idiotic.

The rules for the prediction contest are simple. You get 1 point for getting the player and team matched right, 1 point for getting the player and pick number right, and a bonus point for getting both. Each of us did 2 rounds, so the maximum points possible is 192 from the 64 picks. Without further ado, I am on the left, and Lloyd is on the right.

ESPN Validates Me

Next Level Draft Position Value

This article is about what positions should be targeted in the first round of the NFL Draft based on pro-football-reference.com Approximate Value (AV) ratings. They went round by round and found what positions drop off the most from the 1st round to 2nd round. And surprise, right after QB, it was LB. I wrote about this on March 1st. Thanks ESPN for making me feel smarter than you. Also, if you can't tell, I can link now, which is awesome.

Broncos Draft

EDIT: Denver acquired the Dolphins 2nd round pick this season, number 43 overall, so I needed to add that in.

The Denver Broncos have 7 picks in this years NFL draft. They are 11, 43, 45, 80, 114, 183, and 220. While not the ideal number of picks, they should be able to fill some gaps in the defense and solidify some other positions. This is a just a guess of who might be taken with these picks by the team.

11. Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama
If he's there, it's the easy choice. Andra Davis is gone, Mario Haggan is a bum, and DJ Williams is just dying by himself. With a much bigger DL in place with free agent acquisitions, a playmaking LB in the Patrick Willis mold just makes perfect sense. I don't know that he's there for me, but I've heard others say he's better than Willis at this stage, which would be incredible.

43. Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame
This is a bit of a reach, hoping that Tate slips down to this pick. Arrelious Benn has been moving up along with Demaryius Thomas, both of whom may go in the 1st round now. If that happens expect Tate to drop down to the 2nd, where Denver could get a great value. I love his ability and production, and would be excited. Don't be surprised, however, to see Denver package 43 and 45 and move up to get either Maurkice Pouncey or a falling Dez Bryant. I'm excited about this pick.

45. J.D. Walton, C, Baylor
With no true centers on the roster with the release of Casey Wiegmann, the Broncos will need to address this need early. He played at a high level this season, making first team All America, and is big enough to fit in with the new line McDaniels is building. Maybe a reach, but the class drops off after him.

80. Torrell Troup, NT, UCF
With the addition of Jamal Williams the Broncos will be able to groom a project at the NT position. Troup played well in the C-USA, but will need to adjust to the top level. He was 2nd team in the C-USA behind 2nd round prospect Linval Joseph, but isn't quite as ready yet. This is a good spot for him to learn.

114. Riley Cooper, WR, Florida
A speedy, shifty, white WR with good hands. Sounds sorta like a Patriots WR who has been a breakout star. The difference is that Cooper is 6'3", a full 6 inches taller than Welker, and hasn't run the same underneath routes in college that Welker did at Texas Tech. However, with some help from Gaffney he could develop nicely.

183. Reggie Stephens, OG, Iowa St.
I admit I don't know too much about him, but he's 334 lbs. Denver is looking for big guys, and while their OTs are set, they still have room to improve their interior linemen. He's started for 3 years, which is a nice indicator of stability.

220. Cody Grimm, S, Virginia Tech
Had to give the Broncos a Hokie, and Grimm will be one hell of a special teamer. He has experience at LB and S, and plays with controlled fury. He has a knack for stripping the ball, and can really be a boost to any team he goes to. I'll be sad to see him go, but if the Broncos do take him, I'll be first in line with a Cody Grimm jersey.

Donovan McNabb Trade

So now that most of the hyperbole has stopped surrounding the trade of McNabb to the Redskins, I think it's time to take a closer look at what made this happen, and what it means for both teams.

1. Philadelphia had to trade McNabb. He will start the season at 34 years old, coming off several injuries, and with one year left in his contract. The Eagles needed to find value for him anywhere they could. Not to mention, McNabb can't win big games. This is a team that believes they are ready to compete for a Super Bowl. They have Jackson, Maclin, Celek, and McCoy as great offensive weapons and a defense that will regain Stewart Bradley and should be a top 12 unit next season. McNabb has proven to be a poor game manager and unable to handle the pressure. Don't mistake this as me saying he's a bad QB. His regular season numbers are borderline hall of fame, and with a few more seasons will be. However, he isn't the QB that will win you a Super Bowl. It's unfortunate because he seems like a decent guy, but he just doesn't have it in him. Does that mean Kevin Kolb can win it all? Not necessarily, but the longer he sits on the bench, the shorter his career as a starter will be. As long as Reid was in town he wasn't going to unseat McNabb for the starter spot. But the kid has to be given the chance to succeed or else you'll never know.

2. That being said, trading McNabb to the Redskins is a mistake. You never want to improve another team in your division by giving them a pro bowl caliber player for draft picks. So what if he didn't want to go to Oakland or Buffalo. If he threatens to retire than big deal. Make him prove it. I understand that Reid and McNabb are forever linked because of their time together, but the NFL is a business. Loyalty is wonderful, but when you're the only person that believe that he can get you a ring, then you need to find someone else. Oakland was willing to talk about Asomugha, and Buffalo was willing to give up more picks (speculation of course, but I don't doubt either). When you're trading a player in the NFL, the rest of the team comes before the player being traded. Plus, now you have a pissed off player that will be looking to destroy you twice a year instead of maybe just once. This isn't free agency where you have little to no control, this is a trade.

3. Let's stop all the John Elway comparisons right now. Elway made it to 3 Super Bowls before Mike Shanahan showed up, and was languishing on teams that were terrible. Without looking up Wikipedia or pro-football-reference.com, I feel confident that no one under 30 besides me can name a single offensive player from those 80's Denver teams. Because there was no one. Elway didn't have a TO, or a BW. He had Ricky Nattiel and Rod Bernstine. Elway carried those teams on his back. Once he finally got some help and balance, he was able to finish the job. While I understand the similarities between the situations to a degree, McNabb isn't the same caliber. Not to mention McNabb is moving to a completely different team, a new city, new teammates, and an entirely new staff. Cool your jets everyone.

4. So who won the trade? It would be easy to say that both teams won, or both teams lost, but really, everyone knows that isn't true. The truth is that unless McNabb wins a Super Bowl with the Redskins, the Eagles won this trade. Even if Kolb isn't the answer, they will still be ahead at least a year in trying to find the guy who is. The Eagles still have a much better roster, and will compete at a high level. The Redskins must win a Super Bowl with McNabb, young, inexperienced WRs, old RBs, and depleted O-line, and a decent D. Do I see him giving the Redskins a boost, absolutely. They will probably post at least 9 wins. But Philadelphia traded him to win a Super Bowl, not to make the playoffs, and that's why they come out the winners.

New Mock Draft

The Questions March Madness Brings Up

We've almost crowned another NCAA National Champion in basketball, and this year has been as crazy as any we've seen. But the madness just continues to make me long for a NCAA Football playoff. I know I touched on this earlier, but I decided to take the time and really expand the idea into a full fledged proposal. I truly believe that this plan could work if the parties involved took a step back and just tried to accommodate the fans rather than themselves. The proposal would require some key changes to the current format of college football, but nothing extreme.

1. Eliminate Conference Championship Games
Before anyone cries about this, remember that the first conference championship game of any kind wasn't played until 1992 in the SEC. There is no real tradition involved in the game, and it just serves to add an extra games worth of revenue for the conference. In very rare instances like last season you could see 2 undefeated teams square off, but it's not likely to happen on a consistent basis. Not to mention, wouldn't a national title game between Alabama and Florida (provided they made it) have been a better way to decide last season than in a conference championship game. Eliminating this game gives teams a bye week to rest before the playoffs begin, and prevents a team from losing a playoff spot by being beat by the same team twice as can happen. Tiebreakers for conference champions would fall into line with all the other conferences without championship games just like before.

2. Have Automatic Qualifiers
There are 11 conferences in Division I-A (and I will continue to refer to it as I-A because FBS gives credence to the bowl system that makes no fucking sense). Just like in basketball, each conference gets an automatic qualifier, so that there is no more worrying about lawsuits from Utah or Idaho. Everyone gets a shot. And just like in basketball, we'll probably never see a 16 upset a 1, but wouldn't it be fun if they did.

3. The Use for the BCS
Ah, now we can find a use for the BCS formula. At its best the BCS helps separate the best from the middle of the pack. With 11 teams automatically qualifying, that leaves 5 vacant spots in a 16 team tournament. So once the 11 teams are taken out, the next 5 highest ranked teams will be placed. The BCS can be used many ways. It can be a tool to help come to a decision, but not the ultimate decider, like the RPI in basketball, or it can be the final say in those 5 spots. Personally, I enjoy the selection committee because it allows for analysis that computers can't do. For example, and this pains me to say, but in 2007 LSU stomped VT in the 2nd game of the season. It was an ugly display for the Hokies, and a great one for LSU. By the end of the season, both teams finished 10-2. VT had lost to LSU by 41, and to BC by 4 in the rain, and later avenged the loss in the ACC Championship Game. LSU lost to Kentucky and Arkansas in OT. While not top flight teams, they didn't get blown out of the water in either game. However, at the end of the season, the computers had VT as the number 1 ranked team. Doesn't make a lot of sense. So the human factor in selecting the final 5 teams is best so that something like that could be avoided if it came down to a final spot.

4. The Seeding
Again, a great way to utilize the tool that is the BCS and selection committee. Seed the AQs that don't rank in the top 12 first and put them 13-16. Next seed the conference winners that are in top 12, which is likely 5-8 of them depending on the season based on whatever criteria wanted. Most likely it would again be a combo of BCS and human judgment. Finally place the at-large teams in the holes that are left. Now this isn't science, so for a year like last, the top 3 seeds would have been in some order Alabama, Florida, and Texas, so that wouldn't change. Having an overall idea going in is critical to getting it right. Give the top 4 seeds preferential treatment when determining game locations for the first and 2nd rounds, but be sure not to give any team seeded 9-12 any chance at a home-field advantage over the 5-8 seeds. Basically, copy to region formats from basketball as closely as possible. (If you've noticed a recurring theme, the NCAA does tournaments for every sport it possibly can, so it should be great at running one, and they do a great job in their most highly followed one, even if CBS screws it up. So take the lead from that and build upon it) Make sure that teams from the same conference wouldn't be able to play until the Final Four. One adjustment to the basketball formula would be reseeding after rounds. Since games are played a week apart, the ability to reseed like in hockey is there. I'll give an example later of how it would work.

5. Naming Rights
One thing that bowl advocates say that makes my skin crawl is the notion that they would lose the tradition of the bowls. Why? Couldn't the first round game between the 8 and 9 seed be known as the Cotton Bowl? Can't the 4-13 game be the Alamo Bowl? And these games would be better than the ones you already have. And to the bowls that aren't included in the playoff, get real. You're game of Toledo vs Marshall isn't going to lose and significance, and you can absolutely still play it, because it never has and never will have any affect on the National Championship. The top 4 bowls now: Sugar, Rose, Fiesta, and Orange will be the quarterfinal games. Followed by the Final Four of Football, and the National Championship Game. And if the opening round games want to rotate which bowls are used, even better.

6. The Weeks
Using this past season as an example: After eliminating the conference championship games the first week of December, the schedule would look like this:
November 27th - Last regular season game
December 5th - Bye Week
December 12th - First Round
December 19th - Second Round
December 26th - Final Four
January 2nd - NC Game

Kinda makes sense doesn't it.

7. The Example
So from the past season I will now demonstrate how awesome a college football playoff would have looked based on all the games except conference championships. And remember, this was a strange year, with 6 undefeated teams heading into conference championship week, and 5 emerging still undefeated. 2 of those teams were not from the big 6 conferences, and moved their seeds up significantly and moved the at-large bids down.

The Seeds:
1. Florida (SEC champ)
2. Alabama (SEC at-large)
3. Texas (Big 12 champ)
4. TCU (Mount. West champ)
5. Cincy (Big East champ)
6. Boise St. (WAC champ)
7. Oregon (Pac 10 champ)
8. Ohio St. (Big 10 champ)
9. Georgia Tech (ACC champ)
10. Iowa (Big 10 at-large)
11. Penn St. (Big 10 at-large)
12. Virginia Tech (ACC at-large)
13. LSU (SEC at-large)
14. Central Michigan (MAC champ)
15. East Carolina (C-USA champ)
16. Troy (Sun Belt champ)

The Games:
1. Florida vs 16. Troy
2. Alabama vs 15. East Carolina
3. Texas vs 14. Central Michigan
4. TCU vs 13. LSU
5. Cincinnati vs 12. Virginia Tech
6. Boise St. vs 11. Penn St.
7. Oregon vs 10. Iowa
8. Ohio St. vs 9. Georgia Tech

If we assume higher seeds win...
1. Florida vs 8. Ohio St.
2. Alabama vs 7. Oregon
3. Texas vs 6. Boise St.
4. TCU vs 5. Cincinnati

Once more...
1. Florida vs 4. TCU
2. Alabama vs 3. Texas

Now tell me that wouldn't be a hell of a tournament. As for the reseeding, we'll use as an example VT upsetting Cincinnati in the first round of games.
1. Florida vs 12. VT
2. Alabama vs 8. Ohio St
3. Texas vs 7. Oregon
4. TCU vs 6. Boise St.

Very simply, apply the formula throughout the rounds to give the 1 seed the easiest path that they earned.

I'm curious if anyone can find a reason why this wouldn't work. Please feel free to leave a comment and tell me why.

Edit:
Forgot one thing.

8. The Notre Dame Corollary
I almost forgot one important rule that needs to be reluctantly included known as the Notre Dame Corollary. This is a symbolic amendment for any team in I-A that isn't a member of a conference, which is just Notre Dame, Army, and Navy. Since they have no conference to win, they do have the opportunity to participate in the playoff under certain conditions. They can get an at-large spot by finishing high enough and being selected by the committee. More importantly, if they finish at least 12th in the BCS they are guaranteed to be a part of tournament as the 12th AQ no matter if they would be one of the 5 at-large selections. So if more than 4 of the top 12 would be at large selections and Notre Dame, Army, or Navy finishes there, they would bump another team out. At least this will be there until Notre Dame joins the Big East or Big 10.

Gotta love this. Just had to share.

Northern Iowa: The Best and Worst Thing to Happen to College Sports

So it occurred to me while watching the online gamecast of Northern Iowa upsetting Kansas that I was missing one of those monumental upsets that will be on highlight reels for years. When Ali Farokhmanesh took that 3 he put a dagger in the heart of Kansas, but the ramifications of that shot may eventually affect more than just his teams fate. There are 2 major consequences that could come from not just the UNI win, but the all the other upsets this year.

The first is an expansion of the tournament to 96 (or 97) teams from the current field of 65. While I am for expansion, it is to a field of 68. Changing the play-in games from two automatic qualifiers who deserve to be in the field of 64 to making the last 4 at large spots play in games between bubble teams. At worst, keep the current format and just make the last at large spot a play-in game. However, seeing these at large teams seeded 11th or 12th win games will make other cry for their spot.

The second consequence is a little more far-reaching, but not totally insane. Games like this only make the BCS conferences more uneasy about a football playoff. In basketball you need to win 6 games in a row to become National Champion, but in most of the proposals for a college football playoff it's only 2 or 3. Now a 4, 8, or even 16 game tournament is definitely a better option for football due to its violent nature, but with the current system no non-BCS school has ever truly competed for a spot in the title game. For the Boise St. and Utah's of the world to ever have a shot they need to go undefeated and hope everyone else has at least 2 losses. With an 8 team playoff, both TCU and Boise St. would have played in the tournament, and would have had a legit chance to win. Imagine an 8 team playoff based on the BCS rankings. The first round would be Alabama vs Ohio St, Texas vs Oregon, Cincinnati vs Boise St, and TCU vs Florida. Everyone wins with that, but the conference commissioners get together, all they'll see is the potential to lose significant revenue by allowing the smaller schools in, which is a shame.

March Madness!

http://games.espn.go.com/tcmen/en/entry?entryID=1591840&print=true

I don't know how clear this is, but this is my tourney bracket from Yahoo! Feel free to debate, but don't pretend like you know it all, because you don't, and neither do I.

On a note, I found it interesting that 3 of the 4 teams I predicted in the Final Four initially are in the same region. So there goes that idea.

My Scouting Methods: Offense

So I have decided to put into writing how I scout players and what exactly I look for at each position. There are some very specific things I look for in some positions, and other times when more general things are important. Sometimes I will admit when I have a feeling about players (Darren McFadden) that has no basis in scouting but overwhelms me and must be accounted for. Other times there is very specific criticism (Jimmy Clausen against the rush) that makes highly touted players fall. Generally speaking the difference between my analysis and others won't be large, but can be somewhat different.

QB: I've always felt a QB that wins in college will generally be a winner in the NFL. This isn't always true, as my favorite QB of all time John Elway never went to a bowl game but won 2 Super Bowls, so team must be accounted for. In addition to the ability to win, the main attributes necessary for good QBs are accuracy and poise. Arm power is very overrated with scouts. While a strong arm will help, many teams will overvalue that. Throwing a 18-20 yard out route is great, but anticipation and accuracy to place the ball are more important than the laser to put it on a spot. The NFL is based on timing more than anything, and QBs know their strength and when to throw to put the ball in a spot, so accuracy means so much more.

RB: While speed and strength are vitals parts of a RBs arsenal, vision is the most important skill a back can have. Vision isn't taught or learned, but an ability someone is born with. Even when I played football I knew that even if I was fast or strong, I didn't have the same vision as others to find the right hole and explode through. Along with vision burst is necessary to be able to go through the hole and pick up yards. The big home run hitters very rarely can pick up tough yards, but guys with good burst and vision will be able to contribute on every down and be successful in the NFL.

WR: This position is probably the greatest discrepancy between combine numbers and actual NFL ability. So much focus is paid to 40 times and vertical jumps, when in reality the best receivers run crisp routes and are agile. Getting in and out of breaks is more important than straight line speed. If you're running a 9 route ok, but otherwise running fast in a line won't help you accomplish much because no one runs straight on the field. WRs in a diverse offensive scheme have a leg up due to their familiarity with the routes of an NFL team. Today's teams require drags and short slants as opposed to streaks and skinny posts, so WRs must adapt to those routes to be productive at the next level.

TE: The tight end position is tricky to evaluate because every team uses their tight ends a little differently. Some prefer TEs that can block and run the short to intermediate routes. While others want someone to stretch the field vertically up the seam and split out as a big WR. So I really struggle to decide what exactly I look for, but it really depends on the team's offense. Usually I try to find a mix of WR and OT, someone who can help set the edge on the run, chip on DEs and LBs in pass protection, and still run routes well. Speed is a little overrated at TE because they generally are space creators when running seam routes as opposed to actually trying to get over top the safeties. So knowledge of pass coverages helps as well.

OT: Playing offensive tackle well is extremely difficult, because even if you win the one on one battle 90% of the time, you probably just gave up 2-3 sacks or hurries. When watching tackles I like to see a quick first step, whether it be backwards or forwards. After that a good slide with balance when pass blocking is necessary to set the edge. Arm length is nice to create separation but not the ultimate physical attribute. Seeing a thick core helps when anchoring. This is the position where it seems most like a stock show as opposed to a human being.

OG/C: The interior OL positions are about the same. The require a little more bulk and a little less speed than the OT position. Pulling guards generally aren't out past the hashes anymore with more power O plays and less toss sweeps and student bodies. The decent interior linemen can rely on brute strength to survive, but the best will use hand placement when dealing with bigger DTs and blitzing LBs. Watch someone like Steve Hutchinson or Alan Faneca, they don't just bull through guys, they keep people out of their chest. Agility is always nice, but again a thick core is usually the most important part.

New Big Board

New Additions to the Big Board:
1. Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri
He was a guy who was right on the edge last time. He really made an impression at the combine, and not just from the white, full body Under Armour. Weatherspoon proved he has all the measurements necessary and played well at the Senior Bowl. He will be a good pick in the last quarter of the first round or any time after that.

2. Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno St
Probably the only guy who really jumped up due to the combine solely for me. I didn't expect a 4.41 out of him. He has talent, but I worry about the level of competition he's played against. That's why that 4.41 really means a lot. It shows he isn't just dominating bad competition, but validates his NFL readiness. He should go late first/early second now.

3. Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida
Can't deny the guy's athleticism after he had a solid combine. I'm still sketchy on him because I worry about the one year wonder syndrome. There has never been a worry about kind of measurements he would have, just about his playing. He really makes the leap here because of the downfall of Greg Hardy. I still don't think he's a top DE in the draft, but he's on the next level that can be coached up.

Post Combine Mock Draft

A quick look at how the combine affected the draft's first round.

Combine Thoughts: Stock Up, Stock Down

So the NFL Scouting Combine is done for 2010, and coming away from Lucas Oil Stadium, there were some clear winners and clear losers. These are the top 5 guys who have improved their stock, and top 5 guys who saw their stock drop.

Stock Up:
1. Dorin Dickerson, TE, Pittsburgh
Kind of an obvious pick here after an absolutely dominating performance in the 40 yard dash and vertical jump. He ran a 4.40 and jumped 43.5 inches and dominated the competition at TE. The only downside was that he measured in at 6'1", small for an ideal NFL TE, but probably ok for H-back. While I think he'll probably go in the 2nd round now, he still doesn't do anything for me as a player. His numbers may say Vernon Davis, but his production in college doesn't.

2. Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers
Another guy who ran well in the 40, but I was more impressed with McCourty during his backpedal in the drills. He didn't look great when opening up his hips, and didn't really play the ball as well as I would like to see, but he did look fluid in short bursts. Perhaps he isn't suited for press coverage, but his ability to drive shows me he could play off a bit and really help.

3. Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
While he was expected to shine in Indy, he went above and beyond. His sporadic play is still the greatest concern, but Campbell is a guy who truly could be coached into greatness with the right team. He probably solidified a first round pick with his performance here.

4. Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri
Weatherspoon had slowly been creeping up big boards and mock drafts, and really proved why this past week. He looked fluid, fast, and strong. He is the top OLB prospect in this years draft, and may find himself in the late teens of the first round for a team with an OLB need. The nice thing is that his tape reflects his position, and he really played well at the Senior Bowl against some tough competition.

5. Jason Worilds, DE/OLB, Virginia Tech
Worilds is one of my favorites this year, and his combine really helped him a lot. He ran fast and performed well enough to really set himself up as a 3-4 OLB in the draft. His shoulder will always be something teams will be aware of, and will cause him to drop on draft day. However, he proved that athletically he is more than able to make the transition in the NFL. His college productivity and willingness to play through pain should cement him in the 3rd-4th round range.

Honorable Mention:
Golden Tate
Russell Okung
Jimmy Graham
Ryan Matthews
Dennis Pitta

Stock Down:
1. Dan LeFevour, QB, Central Michigan
LeFevour missed a chance to really put himself at the top of the 2nd round by deciding to only throw at bags and wait for his pro day. All the teams have representatives in Indy, and after a strong Senior Bowl week of practice he had the momentum in his favor. Now he has to hope teams will travel to Michigan to see him work out at his Pro Day (UConn and NC State both have pro days that day, so that may take away from his group). A bad performance there and he may slip out of the 2nd round all together.

2. Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida
Dunlap was projected as a 3-4 DE in the NFL with great upside due to his speed, strength, and size. Well, the speed is there, but the strength and size were a bit lacking. Dunlap weighed in at 272, a full 18 lbs lighter than he was listed at Florida. He wasn't a top performer in the bench press, but was in the 40 yard dash. This may mean a transition from 3-4 end to 4-3 end or even 3-4 OLB, however that would be a brand new position unlike what he played in college. He becomes a risk now in the first round, and may have dropped himself out.

3. Navorro Bowman, OLB, Penn State
Bowman looked sloppy in his drills, falling down once and showing poor footwork. Bowman was projected high despite some problems because of his athletic ability, but that really didn't show through. He did well in the bench and some cone drills, but was slow in the 40, had a poor vertical jump, and was generally underwhelming. He had character issues before the season, and with this performance may have dropped out of the first round.

4. Joe Haden, CB, Florida
Haden ran a surprisingly slow 40 yard dash and didn't really do great in any drills. He still shows great skill on tape, but may drop a bit by teams concerned with his ability to keep up with the faster WRs in the league. If Haden can do a little better at his pro day he may be able to reverse the damage, but it seems likely that he will see his stock drop.

5. Myron Rolle, S, Florida State
I like Rolle a lot because he's a Rhodes Scholar and a high character guy. That doesn't mean he performed well at the combine. He was slow in the 40 and looked rather out of shape. He didn't have a great showing at the Senior Bowl either. He was out of position there, and really didn't turn well at the combine. Maybe once he gets back into football shape and plays more he will be productive, but he definitely hurt himself at the combine.

Middle First Round....Take a LB

With doing my research on skill position offensive players, I noticed one thing about the players picked in that area. The linebackers picked between 11 to 21 seem to have an extremely high rate of success. Teams seem to undervalue quality linebackers, and solidifying the defense with great LB can make a world of difference. Think about Ray Lewis and the impact he has on the Ravens D. Even when he's not in the play, he acts as a de facto QB, making sure his teammates are in position. Many of the guys taken since 2000 at the LB position are difference makers that should be top 10 picks but aren't because of some belief that a quality LB doesn't deserve the same money as a WR or DE. Sorry, I disagree, and this list might prove my point. These are all the LBs taken between 11 and 21 since 2000.

Julian Peterson
Dan Morgan
D.J. Williams
Jonathan Vilma
David Pollack
Derrick Johnson
Thomas Davis
Shawne Merriman
Demarcus Ware
Bobby Carpenter
Chad Greenway
Lawrence Timmons
Patrick Willis
Larry English
Brian Cushing
Brian Orakpo

Forgetting about the popularity contest that is the Pro Bowl, this group of players has made 13 1st or 2nd team All-Pro teams. That is an impressive number. Taking out Pollack, who played sparingly during his injury filled career, and the 3 rookies, 12 players have 12 All-Pro teams (Cushing made 2nd team this year, impressive already). So maybe come draft day, Rolando McClain, Brandon Spikes, and Sean Weatherspoon should be thankful if they get drafted in the middle of the first round.

The Middle First Round Blues

So I have been working on a theory about the first round of the NFL Draft. The middle picks, between 11 and 21, are the worst places to pick skill position players. Initially I developed this theory under the belief that players who are drafted in these spots have some sort of flaw that is exposed with these teams. A top 10 pick is likely talented, driven, and intelligent. A pick that falls out of that area has either been overvalued by the combine, or is being drafted more on potential and upside than on actual ability. This is especially true at positions where 40 times and cone drills are more important. So I did a little research, and found that QBs, RBs, and TEs were hit or miss. There were some gems, like Ben Roethlisberger and Shaun Alexander, and some mid level talents, but the WR class was well, disappointing. Since 2000 there have been 11 WRs taken between picks 11 and 21, and there were a total of 2 Pro Bowls. For reference, here is a list of each position and who was taken.

QB:
Boller
Cutler
Flacco
Freeman
Pennington
Roethlisberger

RB:
Alexander
Dayne
Duckett
Green (William)
Lynch
Maroney
Moreno
Stewart (Jonathan)

WR:
Clayton (Michael)
Evans
Gardner (Rod)
Johnson (Bryant)
Jones (Matt)
Maclin
Morris (Sylvester)
Moss (Santana)
Stallworth
Walker

TE:
Graham
Franks
Pettigrew
Shockey

Perhaps some of those guys were victim of circumstance or injury, but if I'm a GM or Scouting Director, I think twice about pulling the trigger on one of those guys before I know exactly why they fell to me. Players in that range make too much money to be mistakes, and players can be found too easily later in the draft to expect to keep a job with that kind of blunder.

Pre-Combine Mock Draft

Because I Can...

Random Thoughts

First things first, I'll say something about Tiger Woods. He is in my life because he is the greatest golfer in the world, and I enjoy being a terrible golfer. His endorsement of certain products has no effect on my decision to buy them. I don't have Nike clubs or spikes. I drink Gatorade when it sounds good, and the Tiger version is awful. So if he cheats on his wife with 15 women, or whatever it is, it's none of my concern. Perhaps if I had impressionable kids I might worry, but really, all he is now is a cautionary tale. I didn't wake my tired ass up and watch the press conference. I got the ESPN News update on my phone, which was more than enough. Unless he is announcing that he'll be returning for the Master's, I don't care. It just seems silly to worry about something that doesn't impact anything I care about.

Onto the Olympics, where the USA just wrapped up a thrilling 5-3 win over Canada. Ryan Miller played his butt off in goal and had to be the first star of that game. Rafalski and Drury were absolutely integral to the success of the team, but without Miller saving 42 of 45 shots they would have been done for. If they USA hopes to advance to the gold medal game they are going to have to play better and keep the puck out of their own zone. They got lucky on a couple goals and were really outplayed for most of the game. Still, an exciting victory for the young team that should propel them onward. Aside from that, my prediction for the medal count isn't looking so hot. I really didn't expect the US team to be so good at this point. They have really stepped up to the challenge. It is now possible for the US to lead the total medal counts in both summer and winter games. Depressing for the rest of the world.

Pitchers and catchers have reported to spring training, and with that the speculation has begun on the next season. As an Orioles fan I have continued to look to next season, but this may finally be "next" season. If the young pitching on the roster can develop behind Milwood and Guthrie, it isn't beyond them to move into 3rd place in the AL East. Asking to win a World Series with this roster is a little much, but getting above or around .500 isn't. They have an extremely talented outfield with Markakis, Jones, and Reimold, a solid middle infield, and the best catching prospect in the majors. Their corner defense may be suspect, but if Garrett Atkins can't play well enough, Ty Wigginton has shown the ability to play well every day. I really think Andy McPhail has done an excellent job constructing a team, hopefully he isn't canned before being able to see it to fruition.

10 Potential Draft Busts

The last post I mentioned 5 players that I thought could be had later in the draft that would be steals. And the Universal law of drafting states that for every sleeper, there are 2 busts to fill his place. Busts come in all shapes and sizes (double entendre) and this list is no different. Some players have maturity issues, some have injury issues, and others are just overrated. The beauty of a bust is that often times the situation they get drafted in has just as much to do with their failings as their own abilities. Still, these are the guys I feel have the highest likelihood of going in the first 2 rounds and not panning out.

1. Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
I've previously documented my disdain for Clausen's NFL abilities. His likelihood of going to an NFL team with a poor O-line is high, and his ability to stare down the rush and deliver is poor. He has a duck for a deep ball and I'm not convinced he's that great of a leader. Notre Dame QBs have a long history of not living up to their hype (Montana excluded) and that trend will continue. I may cry if Denver takes him.

2. Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
Morgan is a different type of DE, a guy who isn't flashy and can hold the edge on the run and can get to the QB on passes. However, his streaky nature worries me too much to have him as a top 10 talent like I see everywhere else. He disappears from some games, including many away games. He tallied 9 sacks at home, 3 on the road, and 2 of those 3 were against Duke and Virginia. He lacks an it factor that I like to see from a top 10 guy. He may be a decent player, but he won't be worth the money he gets this season.

3. Terrence Cody, NT, Alabama
Another guy with well documented bust potential. He is the best when he wants to be, but that desire seems to come and go. Issues with weight will not only cause a lack of playing time if he cannot stay in shape, but could lead to injuries down the road. He seems like the kind of player who will either put it all together early in his career and dominate the game (think Vince Wilfork), or a guy who will get every opportunity and fail to meet expectations. It's all in his hands.

4. Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma St.
Bryant is by far the most talented WR in this years draft. That being said, the combine will be important for him to see what kind of shape he has kept himself in, and where his mind is at after being suspended for the Deion Sanders fiasco. (Small sidenote, how does this kid lose his eligibility by talking to Deion, yet there are no ramifications for Sanders. He started controversy with the whole adopting Noel Devine thing, and now this. Until a guy turns pro, Sanders should have no contact with players.) Bryant is big, with good hands and decent speed. If he puts it together mentally then there's no reason for him to be on this list.

5. C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
Spiller is not one of my favorite players. He has blazing speed, good agility, and incredible burst. However, I wonder about his vision and durability. He may also struggle to get playing time if he doesn't learn how to pass block. Spiller does have talent, and should be a much better value if he falls to the 2nd round, but most places have him as a mid 1st rounder, and I don't believe he's worth it.

6. Earl Thomas, S, Texas
A member of my most to lose group at the combine, Thomas will need to prove some people wrong. As the questions mount, his ability to handle them will be important. This is the time of year where he will face the most scrutiny. He has gobs of talent, but so do most guys in the NFL. It's what you do with that talent that matters.

7. Arrelious Benn, WR, Illinois
A fringe 1st rounder, Benn is just a player I'm not big on. He had a very bad season after a 1000 yard campaign in 2008. He is a player I want on my team in Madden for his speed and size, but not in real life. I'm not sure about his hands or his ability to run routes. The combine will be good for him if he can show a good understanding of his position. However, I just don't believe Benn will be anything more than a decent slot receiver, and not a Brandon Stokley/Wes Welker type, but a Shaun McDonald type.

8. Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida
Another player who had a turd of a season after a fantastic 2008. Spikes went from being a lock top 10 player last season to being in danger of falling to the 2nd round. The defense remained intact from last season, but Joe Haden became the best player on that defense and Spikes dropped down. Why? Was 2009 just a blip in the radar, or an indication of things to come? Spikes has the size and speed of an NFL linebacker, but does he have the instincts? He is a high risk, high reward type of player.

9. Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
Davis is someone that was seen as a mid 2nd rounder that suddenly burst into the top 10 of all the mock drafts and big boards of guys. This always befuddles me around draft time. Someone suddenly moves up on big boards and becomes the it thing (hello Vernon Gholston) yet never pans out. That's where I see Davis going. He's at best a RT in the NFL, and really, do you need to spend a top 10 pick on someone who is a liability in pass protection? I say no. As far as I'm concerned he's a smaller, quicker Phil Loadholt. Maybe late 1st, early 2nd, but if he gets put at LT in the NFL I think he suffers a Robert Gallery fate.

10. Taylor Mays, S, USC
Yes, he's my boy, and yes, I believe that he can be a beast in the NFL. However, the realist in me knows that if he gets put in the wrong system, one that requires him to play too much man coverage on slot WRs and TEs. He needs to play a deep zone and be allowed to make the big hit. In college teams weren't as willing to go deep on him, I believe in the NFL they will, and he will rise to the occasion. However, he could definitely be a bust if put in a bad situation.

5 NFL Draft Sleepers

The NFL draft is always full of guys with lots of potential and physical gifts that need to be coached into being stars at the next level (Mario Williams). They also have players that have maxed out their potential in college and don't have any real way to grow (Jason White). Often times these are the two groups that will fall in the draft, but provide a late round steal if they fit into the right system. In this day of advanced scouting and medical testing, teams are drafting better and late round steals and undrafted free agents aren't setting records. However, there is still a great deal of talent out there, and with the limit of 7 rounds, some guys get passed over or go late that may really be sleepers. Here is a list of guys that probably won't go until at least round 3 that I think could be real NFL stars someday. This list will be updated until the draft as players move up and down boards.

1. Antonio Brown, WR, Central Mich.
Brown is a guy who always seemed to be there in that CMU offense. He had almost 1200 yards this season, and over 3000 for his 3 year career. He had a huge bowl game, 13 catches for 178 and 4 carries for 22 yards and a TD. He can also return punts and kicks, giving him added value at the next level. He may fall into the lower rounds, but any team that gets him will be lucky to have him. He's not a big possession receiver or a blazer, but he plays well and helped his team go 12-2 this season.

2. Myron Rolle, S, Florida St.
Rolle is a sleeper because he spent the last year being a Rhodes Scholar as opposed to playing major college football. He's obviously smart and should be able to pick up any defensive scheme in the NFL. He has good height and weight for a safety, and depending on his speed at the combine could be a man on the rise. He may take some time to get back into football shape depending on what happened in England. He looked good but not great at the Senior Bowl, but good be a steal for a team patient enough with him.

3. Damion Fletcher, RB, Southern Miss.
Another productive college player that will get overlooked by teams because of his size. Fletcher probably doesn't have a very long shelf life in the NFL, but has good enough vision to make an impact for a team for the time he stays there. Running back is one of the few positions where late round vs early round means very little in terms of pro success, and of the later round guys I like Fletcher the best.

4. Joe Webb, WR/QB, UAB
Webb is a tough guy to get a handle on. He's 6'4", fast, and seems to be a playmaker. However, teams are seeing him as a WR after he played QB in college. That transition doesn't always work out well. Matt Jones was a bust, Antwan Randel El has been OK, but not spectacular and Pat White refused to switch and got killed the last game of the season. I doubt Webb gets drafted as high as any of those guys. However, with his size and speed, if he were able to learn the WR position he could turn into a solid pro, so long as he doesn't develop a coke problem.

5. Stevenson Sylvester, OLB, Utah
A guy who created havoc a year ago against Alabama didn't have a chance to show off like he did last year, but had a solid season. He is a little small for an OLB, but with some NFL strength training I think he could be a factor. He doesn't wow people in any physical way, but it seems any Utah game you watch you hear his name being called an awful lot in plays. Give him the chance to roam and play he could develop into a good starter.