Saturday, March 27, 2010

The Questions March Madness Brings Up

We've almost crowned another NCAA National Champion in basketball, and this year has been as crazy as any we've seen. But the madness just continues to make me long for a NCAA Football playoff. I know I touched on this earlier, but I decided to take the time and really expand the idea into a full fledged proposal. I truly believe that this plan could work if the parties involved took a step back and just tried to accommodate the fans rather than themselves. The proposal would require some key changes to the current format of college football, but nothing extreme.

1. Eliminate Conference Championship Games
Before anyone cries about this, remember that the first conference championship game of any kind wasn't played until 1992 in the SEC. There is no real tradition involved in the game, and it just serves to add an extra games worth of revenue for the conference. In very rare instances like last season you could see 2 undefeated teams square off, but it's not likely to happen on a consistent basis. Not to mention, wouldn't a national title game between Alabama and Florida (provided they made it) have been a better way to decide last season than in a conference championship game. Eliminating this game gives teams a bye week to rest before the playoffs begin, and prevents a team from losing a playoff spot by being beat by the same team twice as can happen. Tiebreakers for conference champions would fall into line with all the other conferences without championship games just like before.

2. Have Automatic Qualifiers
There are 11 conferences in Division I-A (and I will continue to refer to it as I-A because FBS gives credence to the bowl system that makes no fucking sense). Just like in basketball, each conference gets an automatic qualifier, so that there is no more worrying about lawsuits from Utah or Idaho. Everyone gets a shot. And just like in basketball, we'll probably never see a 16 upset a 1, but wouldn't it be fun if they did.

3. The Use for the BCS
Ah, now we can find a use for the BCS formula. At its best the BCS helps separate the best from the middle of the pack. With 11 teams automatically qualifying, that leaves 5 vacant spots in a 16 team tournament. So once the 11 teams are taken out, the next 5 highest ranked teams will be placed. The BCS can be used many ways. It can be a tool to help come to a decision, but not the ultimate decider, like the RPI in basketball, or it can be the final say in those 5 spots. Personally, I enjoy the selection committee because it allows for analysis that computers can't do. For example, and this pains me to say, but in 2007 LSU stomped VT in the 2nd game of the season. It was an ugly display for the Hokies, and a great one for LSU. By the end of the season, both teams finished 10-2. VT had lost to LSU by 41, and to BC by 4 in the rain, and later avenged the loss in the ACC Championship Game. LSU lost to Kentucky and Arkansas in OT. While not top flight teams, they didn't get blown out of the water in either game. However, at the end of the season, the computers had VT as the number 1 ranked team. Doesn't make a lot of sense. So the human factor in selecting the final 5 teams is best so that something like that could be avoided if it came down to a final spot.

4. The Seeding
Again, a great way to utilize the tool that is the BCS and selection committee. Seed the AQs that don't rank in the top 12 first and put them 13-16. Next seed the conference winners that are in top 12, which is likely 5-8 of them depending on the season based on whatever criteria wanted. Most likely it would again be a combo of BCS and human judgment. Finally place the at-large teams in the holes that are left. Now this isn't science, so for a year like last, the top 3 seeds would have been in some order Alabama, Florida, and Texas, so that wouldn't change. Having an overall idea going in is critical to getting it right. Give the top 4 seeds preferential treatment when determining game locations for the first and 2nd rounds, but be sure not to give any team seeded 9-12 any chance at a home-field advantage over the 5-8 seeds. Basically, copy to region formats from basketball as closely as possible. (If you've noticed a recurring theme, the NCAA does tournaments for every sport it possibly can, so it should be great at running one, and they do a great job in their most highly followed one, even if CBS screws it up. So take the lead from that and build upon it) Make sure that teams from the same conference wouldn't be able to play until the Final Four. One adjustment to the basketball formula would be reseeding after rounds. Since games are played a week apart, the ability to reseed like in hockey is there. I'll give an example later of how it would work.

5. Naming Rights
One thing that bowl advocates say that makes my skin crawl is the notion that they would lose the tradition of the bowls. Why? Couldn't the first round game between the 8 and 9 seed be known as the Cotton Bowl? Can't the 4-13 game be the Alamo Bowl? And these games would be better than the ones you already have. And to the bowls that aren't included in the playoff, get real. You're game of Toledo vs Marshall isn't going to lose and significance, and you can absolutely still play it, because it never has and never will have any affect on the National Championship. The top 4 bowls now: Sugar, Rose, Fiesta, and Orange will be the quarterfinal games. Followed by the Final Four of Football, and the National Championship Game. And if the opening round games want to rotate which bowls are used, even better.

6. The Weeks
Using this past season as an example: After eliminating the conference championship games the first week of December, the schedule would look like this:
November 27th - Last regular season game
December 5th - Bye Week
December 12th - First Round
December 19th - Second Round
December 26th - Final Four
January 2nd - NC Game

Kinda makes sense doesn't it.

7. The Example
So from the past season I will now demonstrate how awesome a college football playoff would have looked based on all the games except conference championships. And remember, this was a strange year, with 6 undefeated teams heading into conference championship week, and 5 emerging still undefeated. 2 of those teams were not from the big 6 conferences, and moved their seeds up significantly and moved the at-large bids down.

The Seeds:
1. Florida (SEC champ)
2. Alabama (SEC at-large)
3. Texas (Big 12 champ)
4. TCU (Mount. West champ)
5. Cincy (Big East champ)
6. Boise St. (WAC champ)
7. Oregon (Pac 10 champ)
8. Ohio St. (Big 10 champ)
9. Georgia Tech (ACC champ)
10. Iowa (Big 10 at-large)
11. Penn St. (Big 10 at-large)
12. Virginia Tech (ACC at-large)
13. LSU (SEC at-large)
14. Central Michigan (MAC champ)
15. East Carolina (C-USA champ)
16. Troy (Sun Belt champ)

The Games:
1. Florida vs 16. Troy
2. Alabama vs 15. East Carolina
3. Texas vs 14. Central Michigan
4. TCU vs 13. LSU
5. Cincinnati vs 12. Virginia Tech
6. Boise St. vs 11. Penn St.
7. Oregon vs 10. Iowa
8. Ohio St. vs 9. Georgia Tech

If we assume higher seeds win...
1. Florida vs 8. Ohio St.
2. Alabama vs 7. Oregon
3. Texas vs 6. Boise St.
4. TCU vs 5. Cincinnati

Once more...
1. Florida vs 4. TCU
2. Alabama vs 3. Texas

Now tell me that wouldn't be a hell of a tournament. As for the reseeding, we'll use as an example VT upsetting Cincinnati in the first round of games.
1. Florida vs 12. VT
2. Alabama vs 8. Ohio St
3. Texas vs 7. Oregon
4. TCU vs 6. Boise St.

Very simply, apply the formula throughout the rounds to give the 1 seed the easiest path that they earned.

I'm curious if anyone can find a reason why this wouldn't work. Please feel free to leave a comment and tell me why.

Edit:
Forgot one thing.

8. The Notre Dame Corollary
I almost forgot one important rule that needs to be reluctantly included known as the Notre Dame Corollary. This is a symbolic amendment for any team in I-A that isn't a member of a conference, which is just Notre Dame, Army, and Navy. Since they have no conference to win, they do have the opportunity to participate in the playoff under certain conditions. They can get an at-large spot by finishing high enough and being selected by the committee. More importantly, if they finish at least 12th in the BCS they are guaranteed to be a part of tournament as the 12th AQ no matter if they would be one of the 5 at-large selections. So if more than 4 of the top 12 would be at large selections and Notre Dame, Army, or Navy finishes there, they would bump another team out. At least this will be there until Notre Dame joins the Big East or Big 10.

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