A quick look at how the combine affected the draft's first round.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Combine Thoughts: Stock Up, Stock Down
So the NFL Scouting Combine is done for 2010, and coming away from Lucas Oil Stadium, there were some clear winners and clear losers. These are the top 5 guys who have improved their stock, and top 5 guys who saw their stock drop.
Stock Up:
1. Dorin Dickerson, TE, Pittsburgh
Kind of an obvious pick here after an absolutely dominating performance in the 40 yard dash and vertical jump. He ran a 4.40 and jumped 43.5 inches and dominated the competition at TE. The only downside was that he measured in at 6'1", small for an ideal NFL TE, but probably ok for H-back. While I think he'll probably go in the 2nd round now, he still doesn't do anything for me as a player. His numbers may say Vernon Davis, but his production in college doesn't.
2. Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers
Another guy who ran well in the 40, but I was more impressed with McCourty during his backpedal in the drills. He didn't look great when opening up his hips, and didn't really play the ball as well as I would like to see, but he did look fluid in short bursts. Perhaps he isn't suited for press coverage, but his ability to drive shows me he could play off a bit and really help.
3. Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
While he was expected to shine in Indy, he went above and beyond. His sporadic play is still the greatest concern, but Campbell is a guy who truly could be coached into greatness with the right team. He probably solidified a first round pick with his performance here.
4. Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri
Weatherspoon had slowly been creeping up big boards and mock drafts, and really proved why this past week. He looked fluid, fast, and strong. He is the top OLB prospect in this years draft, and may find himself in the late teens of the first round for a team with an OLB need. The nice thing is that his tape reflects his position, and he really played well at the Senior Bowl against some tough competition.
5. Jason Worilds, DE/OLB, Virginia Tech
Worilds is one of my favorites this year, and his combine really helped him a lot. He ran fast and performed well enough to really set himself up as a 3-4 OLB in the draft. His shoulder will always be something teams will be aware of, and will cause him to drop on draft day. However, he proved that athletically he is more than able to make the transition in the NFL. His college productivity and willingness to play through pain should cement him in the 3rd-4th round range.
Honorable Mention:
Golden Tate
Russell Okung
Jimmy Graham
Ryan Matthews
Dennis Pitta
Stock Down:
1. Dan LeFevour, QB, Central Michigan
LeFevour missed a chance to really put himself at the top of the 2nd round by deciding to only throw at bags and wait for his pro day. All the teams have representatives in Indy, and after a strong Senior Bowl week of practice he had the momentum in his favor. Now he has to hope teams will travel to Michigan to see him work out at his Pro Day (UConn and NC State both have pro days that day, so that may take away from his group). A bad performance there and he may slip out of the 2nd round all together.
2. Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida
Dunlap was projected as a 3-4 DE in the NFL with great upside due to his speed, strength, and size. Well, the speed is there, but the strength and size were a bit lacking. Dunlap weighed in at 272, a full 18 lbs lighter than he was listed at Florida. He wasn't a top performer in the bench press, but was in the 40 yard dash. This may mean a transition from 3-4 end to 4-3 end or even 3-4 OLB, however that would be a brand new position unlike what he played in college. He becomes a risk now in the first round, and may have dropped himself out.
3. Navorro Bowman, OLB, Penn State
Bowman looked sloppy in his drills, falling down once and showing poor footwork. Bowman was projected high despite some problems because of his athletic ability, but that really didn't show through. He did well in the bench and some cone drills, but was slow in the 40, had a poor vertical jump, and was generally underwhelming. He had character issues before the season, and with this performance may have dropped out of the first round.
4. Joe Haden, CB, Florida
Haden ran a surprisingly slow 40 yard dash and didn't really do great in any drills. He still shows great skill on tape, but may drop a bit by teams concerned with his ability to keep up with the faster WRs in the league. If Haden can do a little better at his pro day he may be able to reverse the damage, but it seems likely that he will see his stock drop.
5. Myron Rolle, S, Florida State
I like Rolle a lot because he's a Rhodes Scholar and a high character guy. That doesn't mean he performed well at the combine. He was slow in the 40 and looked rather out of shape. He didn't have a great showing at the Senior Bowl either. He was out of position there, and really didn't turn well at the combine. Maybe once he gets back into football shape and plays more he will be productive, but he definitely hurt himself at the combine.
Stock Up:
1. Dorin Dickerson, TE, Pittsburgh
Kind of an obvious pick here after an absolutely dominating performance in the 40 yard dash and vertical jump. He ran a 4.40 and jumped 43.5 inches and dominated the competition at TE. The only downside was that he measured in at 6'1", small for an ideal NFL TE, but probably ok for H-back. While I think he'll probably go in the 2nd round now, he still doesn't do anything for me as a player. His numbers may say Vernon Davis, but his production in college doesn't.
2. Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers
Another guy who ran well in the 40, but I was more impressed with McCourty during his backpedal in the drills. He didn't look great when opening up his hips, and didn't really play the ball as well as I would like to see, but he did look fluid in short bursts. Perhaps he isn't suited for press coverage, but his ability to drive shows me he could play off a bit and really help.
3. Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
While he was expected to shine in Indy, he went above and beyond. His sporadic play is still the greatest concern, but Campbell is a guy who truly could be coached into greatness with the right team. He probably solidified a first round pick with his performance here.
4. Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri
Weatherspoon had slowly been creeping up big boards and mock drafts, and really proved why this past week. He looked fluid, fast, and strong. He is the top OLB prospect in this years draft, and may find himself in the late teens of the first round for a team with an OLB need. The nice thing is that his tape reflects his position, and he really played well at the Senior Bowl against some tough competition.
5. Jason Worilds, DE/OLB, Virginia Tech
Worilds is one of my favorites this year, and his combine really helped him a lot. He ran fast and performed well enough to really set himself up as a 3-4 OLB in the draft. His shoulder will always be something teams will be aware of, and will cause him to drop on draft day. However, he proved that athletically he is more than able to make the transition in the NFL. His college productivity and willingness to play through pain should cement him in the 3rd-4th round range.
Honorable Mention:
Golden Tate
Russell Okung
Jimmy Graham
Ryan Matthews
Dennis Pitta
Stock Down:
1. Dan LeFevour, QB, Central Michigan
LeFevour missed a chance to really put himself at the top of the 2nd round by deciding to only throw at bags and wait for his pro day. All the teams have representatives in Indy, and after a strong Senior Bowl week of practice he had the momentum in his favor. Now he has to hope teams will travel to Michigan to see him work out at his Pro Day (UConn and NC State both have pro days that day, so that may take away from his group). A bad performance there and he may slip out of the 2nd round all together.
2. Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida
Dunlap was projected as a 3-4 DE in the NFL with great upside due to his speed, strength, and size. Well, the speed is there, but the strength and size were a bit lacking. Dunlap weighed in at 272, a full 18 lbs lighter than he was listed at Florida. He wasn't a top performer in the bench press, but was in the 40 yard dash. This may mean a transition from 3-4 end to 4-3 end or even 3-4 OLB, however that would be a brand new position unlike what he played in college. He becomes a risk now in the first round, and may have dropped himself out.
3. Navorro Bowman, OLB, Penn State
Bowman looked sloppy in his drills, falling down once and showing poor footwork. Bowman was projected high despite some problems because of his athletic ability, but that really didn't show through. He did well in the bench and some cone drills, but was slow in the 40, had a poor vertical jump, and was generally underwhelming. He had character issues before the season, and with this performance may have dropped out of the first round.
4. Joe Haden, CB, Florida
Haden ran a surprisingly slow 40 yard dash and didn't really do great in any drills. He still shows great skill on tape, but may drop a bit by teams concerned with his ability to keep up with the faster WRs in the league. If Haden can do a little better at his pro day he may be able to reverse the damage, but it seems likely that he will see his stock drop.
5. Myron Rolle, S, Florida State
I like Rolle a lot because he's a Rhodes Scholar and a high character guy. That doesn't mean he performed well at the combine. He was slow in the 40 and looked rather out of shape. He didn't have a great showing at the Senior Bowl either. He was out of position there, and really didn't turn well at the combine. Maybe once he gets back into football shape and plays more he will be productive, but he definitely hurt himself at the combine.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Middle First Round....Take a LB
With doing my research on skill position offensive players, I noticed one thing about the players picked in that area. The linebackers picked between 11 to 21 seem to have an extremely high rate of success. Teams seem to undervalue quality linebackers, and solidifying the defense with great LB can make a world of difference. Think about Ray Lewis and the impact he has on the Ravens D. Even when he's not in the play, he acts as a de facto QB, making sure his teammates are in position. Many of the guys taken since 2000 at the LB position are difference makers that should be top 10 picks but aren't because of some belief that a quality LB doesn't deserve the same money as a WR or DE. Sorry, I disagree, and this list might prove my point. These are all the LBs taken between 11 and 21 since 2000.
Julian Peterson
Dan Morgan
D.J. Williams
Jonathan Vilma
David Pollack
Derrick Johnson
Thomas Davis
Shawne Merriman
Demarcus Ware
Bobby Carpenter
Chad Greenway
Lawrence Timmons
Patrick Willis
Larry English
Brian Cushing
Brian Orakpo
Forgetting about the popularity contest that is the Pro Bowl, this group of players has made 13 1st or 2nd team All-Pro teams. That is an impressive number. Taking out Pollack, who played sparingly during his injury filled career, and the 3 rookies, 12 players have 12 All-Pro teams (Cushing made 2nd team this year, impressive already). So maybe come draft day, Rolando McClain, Brandon Spikes, and Sean Weatherspoon should be thankful if they get drafted in the middle of the first round.
Julian Peterson
Dan Morgan
D.J. Williams
Jonathan Vilma
David Pollack
Derrick Johnson
Thomas Davis
Shawne Merriman
Demarcus Ware
Bobby Carpenter
Chad Greenway
Lawrence Timmons
Patrick Willis
Larry English
Brian Cushing
Brian Orakpo
Forgetting about the popularity contest that is the Pro Bowl, this group of players has made 13 1st or 2nd team All-Pro teams. That is an impressive number. Taking out Pollack, who played sparingly during his injury filled career, and the 3 rookies, 12 players have 12 All-Pro teams (Cushing made 2nd team this year, impressive already). So maybe come draft day, Rolando McClain, Brandon Spikes, and Sean Weatherspoon should be thankful if they get drafted in the middle of the first round.
Friday, February 26, 2010
The Middle First Round Blues
So I have been working on a theory about the first round of the NFL Draft. The middle picks, between 11 and 21, are the worst places to pick skill position players. Initially I developed this theory under the belief that players who are drafted in these spots have some sort of flaw that is exposed with these teams. A top 10 pick is likely talented, driven, and intelligent. A pick that falls out of that area has either been overvalued by the combine, or is being drafted more on potential and upside than on actual ability. This is especially true at positions where 40 times and cone drills are more important. So I did a little research, and found that QBs, RBs, and TEs were hit or miss. There were some gems, like Ben Roethlisberger and Shaun Alexander, and some mid level talents, but the WR class was well, disappointing. Since 2000 there have been 11 WRs taken between picks 11 and 21, and there were a total of 2 Pro Bowls. For reference, here is a list of each position and who was taken.
QB:
Boller
Cutler
Flacco
Freeman
Pennington
Roethlisberger
RB:
Alexander
Dayne
Duckett
Green (William)
Lynch
Maroney
Moreno
Stewart (Jonathan)
WR:
Clayton (Michael)
Evans
Gardner (Rod)
Johnson (Bryant)
Jones (Matt)
Maclin
Morris (Sylvester)
Moss (Santana)
Stallworth
Walker
TE:
Graham
Franks
Pettigrew
Shockey
Perhaps some of those guys were victim of circumstance or injury, but if I'm a GM or Scouting Director, I think twice about pulling the trigger on one of those guys before I know exactly why they fell to me. Players in that range make too much money to be mistakes, and players can be found too easily later in the draft to expect to keep a job with that kind of blunder.
QB:
Boller
Cutler
Flacco
Freeman
Pennington
Roethlisberger
RB:
Alexander
Dayne
Duckett
Green (William)
Lynch
Maroney
Moreno
Stewart (Jonathan)
WR:
Clayton (Michael)
Evans
Gardner (Rod)
Johnson (Bryant)
Jones (Matt)
Maclin
Morris (Sylvester)
Moss (Santana)
Stallworth
Walker
TE:
Graham
Franks
Pettigrew
Shockey
Perhaps some of those guys were victim of circumstance or injury, but if I'm a GM or Scouting Director, I think twice about pulling the trigger on one of those guys before I know exactly why they fell to me. Players in that range make too much money to be mistakes, and players can be found too easily later in the draft to expect to keep a job with that kind of blunder.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Monday, February 22, 2010
Saturday, February 20, 2010
Random Thoughts
First things first, I'll say something about Tiger Woods. He is in my life because he is the greatest golfer in the world, and I enjoy being a terrible golfer. His endorsement of certain products has no effect on my decision to buy them. I don't have Nike clubs or spikes. I drink Gatorade when it sounds good, and the Tiger version is awful. So if he cheats on his wife with 15 women, or whatever it is, it's none of my concern. Perhaps if I had impressionable kids I might worry, but really, all he is now is a cautionary tale. I didn't wake my tired ass up and watch the press conference. I got the ESPN News update on my phone, which was more than enough. Unless he is announcing that he'll be returning for the Master's, I don't care. It just seems silly to worry about something that doesn't impact anything I care about.
Onto the Olympics, where the USA just wrapped up a thrilling 5-3 win over Canada. Ryan Miller played his butt off in goal and had to be the first star of that game. Rafalski and Drury were absolutely integral to the success of the team, but without Miller saving 42 of 45 shots they would have been done for. If they USA hopes to advance to the gold medal game they are going to have to play better and keep the puck out of their own zone. They got lucky on a couple goals and were really outplayed for most of the game. Still, an exciting victory for the young team that should propel them onward. Aside from that, my prediction for the medal count isn't looking so hot. I really didn't expect the US team to be so good at this point. They have really stepped up to the challenge. It is now possible for the US to lead the total medal counts in both summer and winter games. Depressing for the rest of the world.
Pitchers and catchers have reported to spring training, and with that the speculation has begun on the next season. As an Orioles fan I have continued to look to next season, but this may finally be "next" season. If the young pitching on the roster can develop behind Milwood and Guthrie, it isn't beyond them to move into 3rd place in the AL East. Asking to win a World Series with this roster is a little much, but getting above or around .500 isn't. They have an extremely talented outfield with Markakis, Jones, and Reimold, a solid middle infield, and the best catching prospect in the majors. Their corner defense may be suspect, but if Garrett Atkins can't play well enough, Ty Wigginton has shown the ability to play well every day. I really think Andy McPhail has done an excellent job constructing a team, hopefully he isn't canned before being able to see it to fruition.
Onto the Olympics, where the USA just wrapped up a thrilling 5-3 win over Canada. Ryan Miller played his butt off in goal and had to be the first star of that game. Rafalski and Drury were absolutely integral to the success of the team, but without Miller saving 42 of 45 shots they would have been done for. If they USA hopes to advance to the gold medal game they are going to have to play better and keep the puck out of their own zone. They got lucky on a couple goals and were really outplayed for most of the game. Still, an exciting victory for the young team that should propel them onward. Aside from that, my prediction for the medal count isn't looking so hot. I really didn't expect the US team to be so good at this point. They have really stepped up to the challenge. It is now possible for the US to lead the total medal counts in both summer and winter games. Depressing for the rest of the world.
Pitchers and catchers have reported to spring training, and with that the speculation has begun on the next season. As an Orioles fan I have continued to look to next season, but this may finally be "next" season. If the young pitching on the roster can develop behind Milwood and Guthrie, it isn't beyond them to move into 3rd place in the AL East. Asking to win a World Series with this roster is a little much, but getting above or around .500 isn't. They have an extremely talented outfield with Markakis, Jones, and Reimold, a solid middle infield, and the best catching prospect in the majors. Their corner defense may be suspect, but if Garrett Atkins can't play well enough, Ty Wigginton has shown the ability to play well every day. I really think Andy McPhail has done an excellent job constructing a team, hopefully he isn't canned before being able to see it to fruition.
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