So on the advice of someone with a much more popular blog than mine, I'm going to start posting more often. So keep reading everyone. Right now we're coming into the heart of the NBA and NHL seasons, the Olympics are starting, March Madness is a month away, and the draft is just around the corner. So with all that said, I've decided to make some predictions about all these things. Right or not, I stand by my predictions.
1. The NBA Finals: Lakers vs Cavs
2. Lakers in 6
3. The NHL Finals: Caps vs Blackhawks
4. Caps in 5
5. Canada will win the most medals in the Olympics
6. Germany will be 2nd, Norway 3rd, US 4th
7. No team will collect more the 40 total medals
8. America will win a curling medal (by far the best sport no one else like)
9. At least one team seeded 14 or higher will win a game in the NCAA tournament
10. The Final Four will be Kansas, Villanova, Michigan St., and Georgetown
11. The title game will be Kansas vs. Georgetown
12. Kansas wins
13. Ndamukong Suh will be the first overall pick
14. Sam Bradford will be the first QB taken
15. Tim Tebow will not be a first round pick
16. The Big 12 and SEC will have at least 16 players drafted in the first round, dominating every other conference.
So there is my Sweet 16, hopefully at least one of them comes true.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
NFL Combine: 5 Players Who Have The Most To Gain or Lose
The NFL Combine is coming up later this month, and as you can see I'm pretty excited. The great part about the combine is that it can either introduce a player to the world (Chris Johnson and his 4.24 40, fastest ever at the combine), or expose a player's major flaw (William Moore, safety from Missouri, slow, bad hip movement, dropped from mid to late 1st to late 2nd). A round drop might not seem like much, but the jump from 1st to 2nd, or even early 1st to late 1st is the difference in millions of dollars, and the reverse is true as well. Darrius Heyward-Bey made millions more because of his 40 time (and Al Davis being a senile old man, but I digress). So the combine, while sometimes overvalued (Mike Mamula anyone?) it is still an important process for NFL scouts. So these are the players I see that can either move up with great performances, or drop far with bad ones.
Most to Gain:
Javier Arenas, CB, Alabama: Arenas had a tough time at the Senior Bowl. Even though he did well in man coverage, scouts came away unimpressed with his speed. If he can show up at the combine and run a 40 in the 4.3 range he should move up boards across the NFL. If he runs in the 4.4-4.5 range he will stay about where he is, so unless he really can't run and goes in the 4.6 range I think the only place he goes is up.
Chad Jones, S, LSU: Another player that will go up with a good 40 time, but more than that, coverage drills will really determine how far Jones can rise. Like Arenas he has shown good burst as a punt returner, but he has also shown big play ability on the field (vs. Miss. St e.g.) in many phases. If he shows good hip turn and vision, he could creep into the late 1st early 2nd, and possibly be the 4th safety taken. Jones could really shine and make a big impression.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, Oregon: Blount is most famous for punching Byron Hout after the Boise St. game this season, but before that incident he was a top rated RB in the draft. He made a strong comeback in the Rose Bowl, and then in the Senior Bowl. If he can perform well, and run fast, he can move himself back into the top 3 RBs in this years draft. He still might be the most talented back in the class, and this is his chance to prove it.
Sean Canfield, QB, Oregon St: Canfield looked sloppy in the Senior Bowl, and relied on the Rodgers brothers as playmakers during the past 2 seasons. Still, he possesses good accuracy, a quick release, and adequate arm strength. If he can show scouts that he has the ability to hit the 20 yard out and has good footwork, then he has a chance to go in the 3rd round range, far higher than the 5-6 range he's in now.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Arizona: This is a little bit of a conditional placement. He hurt himself this season, and in my research I wasn't able to find if he would be healthy enough to participate at the combine or not. If he can, then he really has a chance to shine. He won't be the fastest tight end, or the best blocker, but as a combo player he can be the best all around TE in the draft. If he shows up healthy and can do well in the drills I definitely see him going early in the 2nd round.
Most to Lose:
Taylor Mays, S, USC: Mays has been my favorite college player for the past 3 seasons. I love his hitting ability and instincts. However, the reason most NFL teams keep him as a first round grade is that they believe he is a physical freak that will run at least a 4.3 40 (supposedly he's been clocked at 4.25 at USC) and will bench 225 lbs around 20 times. His lack of interceptions and big plays in his career has led scouts to question his abilities. He has stayed so high on boards because of measurables, and if he doesn't live up he may freefall. However, I still believe he will be an impact player at SS in the NFL. His hitting power has never been questioned, and he showed in the Senior Bowl that when he isn't playing 20 yards deep he can make plays.
Dexter McCluster, RB, Ole Miss: The 5'8", 165 lb. RB is a playmaker. I've heard comparisons from Darren Sproles to Chris Johnson. McCluster needs 2 things to happen. He needs to have a good time in the 40, and more than anything he needs to pass his physical. If teams don't believe his body can pack on more pounds and still maintain his speed he may find himself falling down draft boards. His game breaking abilities can't be questioned, but his durability in the NFL will be.
Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama: Unlike his Crimson Tide counterpart Arenas, Cody has nowhere to go but down. He showed up to the Senior Bowl heavy and plodding, and continues to disappoint despite his enormous potential. I truly believe if he shows up to the combine above 380 lbs he may fall past the 2nd round. As well as his weight issues, he must show scouts he has the power to play a 0-technique in the 3-4. If he doesn't perform well in the bench press it might not matter what weight he shows up as. If Vernon Gholston can press 225 lbs 37 times then Cody better be able to put it up 30.
Earl Thomas, S, Texas: Anytime a redshirt sophomore declares for the draft the team meetings and interviews with a player are going to be key for his draft status. Did he come out because he's sick of playing for no pay, or because he truly believes that he is ready to compete at the next level? Can he play right away, or would if have benefited him to stay in school another year? Is he mature enough to mesh with an NFL locker room? While I think Thomas is a playmaker, in the same mold as Eric Berry (not in the same class, but the same mold), I'm not convinced that he is the mature player ready to lead a defense.
Mardy Gilyard, WR, Cincinnati: Gilyard is another player I truly enjoy watching. I'm not convinced that NFL teams believe that he isn't a product of the system. If he doesn't run a 4.4 or better at the combine I believe he slips from a 2nd round talent to a 4th round talent. Gilyard seems to find the soft spot in the zone, but in the NFL players are too fast to believe that he will consistently be open like he was at Cincy. Gilyard could defintely help himself by running in the 4.3-4.2 range, but if he goes over the 4.4 threshold, he will see himself drop on draft day.
Most to Gain:
Javier Arenas, CB, Alabama: Arenas had a tough time at the Senior Bowl. Even though he did well in man coverage, scouts came away unimpressed with his speed. If he can show up at the combine and run a 40 in the 4.3 range he should move up boards across the NFL. If he runs in the 4.4-4.5 range he will stay about where he is, so unless he really can't run and goes in the 4.6 range I think the only place he goes is up.
Chad Jones, S, LSU: Another player that will go up with a good 40 time, but more than that, coverage drills will really determine how far Jones can rise. Like Arenas he has shown good burst as a punt returner, but he has also shown big play ability on the field (vs. Miss. St e.g.) in many phases. If he shows good hip turn and vision, he could creep into the late 1st early 2nd, and possibly be the 4th safety taken. Jones could really shine and make a big impression.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, Oregon: Blount is most famous for punching Byron Hout after the Boise St. game this season, but before that incident he was a top rated RB in the draft. He made a strong comeback in the Rose Bowl, and then in the Senior Bowl. If he can perform well, and run fast, he can move himself back into the top 3 RBs in this years draft. He still might be the most talented back in the class, and this is his chance to prove it.
Sean Canfield, QB, Oregon St: Canfield looked sloppy in the Senior Bowl, and relied on the Rodgers brothers as playmakers during the past 2 seasons. Still, he possesses good accuracy, a quick release, and adequate arm strength. If he can show scouts that he has the ability to hit the 20 yard out and has good footwork, then he has a chance to go in the 3rd round range, far higher than the 5-6 range he's in now.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Arizona: This is a little bit of a conditional placement. He hurt himself this season, and in my research I wasn't able to find if he would be healthy enough to participate at the combine or not. If he can, then he really has a chance to shine. He won't be the fastest tight end, or the best blocker, but as a combo player he can be the best all around TE in the draft. If he shows up healthy and can do well in the drills I definitely see him going early in the 2nd round.
Most to Lose:
Taylor Mays, S, USC: Mays has been my favorite college player for the past 3 seasons. I love his hitting ability and instincts. However, the reason most NFL teams keep him as a first round grade is that they believe he is a physical freak that will run at least a 4.3 40 (supposedly he's been clocked at 4.25 at USC) and will bench 225 lbs around 20 times. His lack of interceptions and big plays in his career has led scouts to question his abilities. He has stayed so high on boards because of measurables, and if he doesn't live up he may freefall. However, I still believe he will be an impact player at SS in the NFL. His hitting power has never been questioned, and he showed in the Senior Bowl that when he isn't playing 20 yards deep he can make plays.
Dexter McCluster, RB, Ole Miss: The 5'8", 165 lb. RB is a playmaker. I've heard comparisons from Darren Sproles to Chris Johnson. McCluster needs 2 things to happen. He needs to have a good time in the 40, and more than anything he needs to pass his physical. If teams don't believe his body can pack on more pounds and still maintain his speed he may find himself falling down draft boards. His game breaking abilities can't be questioned, but his durability in the NFL will be.
Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama: Unlike his Crimson Tide counterpart Arenas, Cody has nowhere to go but down. He showed up to the Senior Bowl heavy and plodding, and continues to disappoint despite his enormous potential. I truly believe if he shows up to the combine above 380 lbs he may fall past the 2nd round. As well as his weight issues, he must show scouts he has the power to play a 0-technique in the 3-4. If he doesn't perform well in the bench press it might not matter what weight he shows up as. If Vernon Gholston can press 225 lbs 37 times then Cody better be able to put it up 30.
Earl Thomas, S, Texas: Anytime a redshirt sophomore declares for the draft the team meetings and interviews with a player are going to be key for his draft status. Did he come out because he's sick of playing for no pay, or because he truly believes that he is ready to compete at the next level? Can he play right away, or would if have benefited him to stay in school another year? Is he mature enough to mesh with an NFL locker room? While I think Thomas is a playmaker, in the same mold as Eric Berry (not in the same class, but the same mold), I'm not convinced that he is the mature player ready to lead a defense.
Mardy Gilyard, WR, Cincinnati: Gilyard is another player I truly enjoy watching. I'm not convinced that NFL teams believe that he isn't a product of the system. If he doesn't run a 4.4 or better at the combine I believe he slips from a 2nd round talent to a 4th round talent. Gilyard seems to find the soft spot in the zone, but in the NFL players are too fast to believe that he will consistently be open like he was at Cincy. Gilyard could defintely help himself by running in the 4.3-4.2 range, but if he goes over the 4.4 threshold, he will see himself drop on draft day.
Sunday, February 7, 2010
Saturday, January 9, 2010
NFL Playoffs and more
The playoffs have officially begun, and since I'm a little late I have the benefit of not picking the Bengals or Eagles in my Super Bowl matchup (they weren't there anyway, don't worry). So without further ado, the Super Bowl will be the Indianapolis Colts defeating the Minnesota Vikings (yes I realize this will be on the site and visible to anyone and I will probably be completely wrong, but who cares). There is what I believe to be sound reasoning behind these picks, which I will go into now.
In the AFC, the Colts are the team to come out not because of their 14-2 record and number 1 seed, but because I think they will have the best matchups to get there. All the pundits say the Chargers are the kryptonite of the Colts, but seem to forget that they are very likely to have to play the Patriots first. This is the same Patriots team that beat them in the 2006 and 2007 playoffs. The Chargers haven't been to a Super Bowl in the LT era, and I don't expect them too (and I know they're hot, but they were hot as a number 1 seed, but still lost). So the AFC championship game comes down to the Colts-Pats assuming the Colts can beat the Jets. The rematch will be fun to watch considering the regular season game was decided by 4th and 2. I'll take the Colts at home in the playoffs with Peyton Manning, so they go to the Super Bowl.
In the NFC, the Vikings were a popular pick 6 weeks ago, but have fallen off with recent losses. However, they still possess the best combo of running attack, defense, and big play passing of any team in the NFC. Adrian Peterson has had some fumbling problems, but give him a week to rest and look over the film and he should be able to adjust. Favre may be old, but he's still putting the ball in the air well, and Jared Allen, the Williams wall, and a serviceable back 7 will keep them in most games if the offense struggles. The other teams in the NFC all have noticeable flaws outside of the Vikings, including the Saints, who haven't been playing the same style of defense lately and can't hope to score points in bunches like they have been. The other teams just don't compare right now, and I think the Vikings will end up coming out victorious.
What a matchup the Super Bowl could be. Manning-Favre would be legendary. The guy who owns all the records versus the guy who is about the break them all. The power running team vs the high flying passing team. The stout run defense vs the speedy pass defense. This would be a fun game to watch, and I can only hope it happens so I look like a genius.
Only other thought I have is my total and utter surprise at the halfway point of the NHL season that the Colorado Avalanche are not only competitive but in position to take a top 4 seed in the playoffs. This is a team I had almost given up on for the season because of the grim outlook (and by give up on I mean that I wasn't gonna be upset when we lost, not that I stopped being a fan). Instead Duchene has been great as a rookie and Stastny, Wolski, and Hejduk are contributing above and beyond what was expected. I can't wait to see this young team develop into a powerhouse in the Northwest Division.
In the AFC, the Colts are the team to come out not because of their 14-2 record and number 1 seed, but because I think they will have the best matchups to get there. All the pundits say the Chargers are the kryptonite of the Colts, but seem to forget that they are very likely to have to play the Patriots first. This is the same Patriots team that beat them in the 2006 and 2007 playoffs. The Chargers haven't been to a Super Bowl in the LT era, and I don't expect them too (and I know they're hot, but they were hot as a number 1 seed, but still lost). So the AFC championship game comes down to the Colts-Pats assuming the Colts can beat the Jets. The rematch will be fun to watch considering the regular season game was decided by 4th and 2. I'll take the Colts at home in the playoffs with Peyton Manning, so they go to the Super Bowl.
In the NFC, the Vikings were a popular pick 6 weeks ago, but have fallen off with recent losses. However, they still possess the best combo of running attack, defense, and big play passing of any team in the NFC. Adrian Peterson has had some fumbling problems, but give him a week to rest and look over the film and he should be able to adjust. Favre may be old, but he's still putting the ball in the air well, and Jared Allen, the Williams wall, and a serviceable back 7 will keep them in most games if the offense struggles. The other teams in the NFC all have noticeable flaws outside of the Vikings, including the Saints, who haven't been playing the same style of defense lately and can't hope to score points in bunches like they have been. The other teams just don't compare right now, and I think the Vikings will end up coming out victorious.
What a matchup the Super Bowl could be. Manning-Favre would be legendary. The guy who owns all the records versus the guy who is about the break them all. The power running team vs the high flying passing team. The stout run defense vs the speedy pass defense. This would be a fun game to watch, and I can only hope it happens so I look like a genius.
Only other thought I have is my total and utter surprise at the halfway point of the NHL season that the Colorado Avalanche are not only competitive but in position to take a top 4 seed in the playoffs. This is a team I had almost given up on for the season because of the grim outlook (and by give up on I mean that I wasn't gonna be upset when we lost, not that I stopped being a fan). Instead Duchene has been great as a rookie and Stastny, Wolski, and Hejduk are contributing above and beyond what was expected. I can't wait to see this young team develop into a powerhouse in the Northwest Division.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Blockbuster Trade Thoughts
So the MLB Hot Stove has officially heated up with the 4 team trade between the Phillies, Mariners, A's, and Blue Jays. The details of the trade are here: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4744730
So the first question is who made out best in this deal. Well for my money it has to be the Blue Jays. They got 2 top 50 prospects and a need position minor leaguer for a guy who didn't want to be there plus $6 million in cash. Drabek is one of the top pitching prospects out there, Brett Wallace can play both corner infield positions, and if d'Arnaud can hit .250 with 60 RBIs he'll be worth it. Halladay is a great pitcher, but he's 32, wanted tons of money, and was asking to be traded because he didn't want to be a part of a rebuilding team anymore.
The Phillies made out the 2nd best in the deal by getting a top end pitcher signed to a long term deal as well as 3 decent prospects from Seattle. While I don't know how long Halladay can continue to pitch at the level he is at, the underrated portion of this deal is that Lee is only a year younger. Halladay's experience in the brutal AL East will prepare him for just about anything the NL can throw at them. I'm not too familiar with the Seattle farm system, but if the prospects the Phillies get turn out anything like the ones the Orioles got in the Erik Bedard trade, the Phils will be set for a while.
Seattle seems to think they came out the best in this trade, and for the next season they probably did, but they continue to mortgage their future to gain a short term advantage. The 1-2 punch of Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee will make the AL West uneasy, but without a solid offense they can't really compete with the elite of the AL. Not to mention they are getting a 31 year old pitcher who has only had 2 good seasons ever (granted, they were the past 2, but still, if he falls back into his old form I wouldn't be completely shocked). The other problem with Lee is that there is almost no chance they can resign him next season. He wants to test free agency and get CC Sabathia money, which the Mariners most likely can't afford. So they are renting a pitcher for the season, and anything short of a World Series will be a disappointment. They will be lucky to just make the playoffs.
Oakland completes the trade by acquiring Michael Taylor for Brett Wallace. This trade seems just completely pointless. The A's need help and both the corner infield positions (Eric Chavez is getting old and isn't that good anymore, and their first basemen is non-existent) and in the OF, but why get involved in a trade that doesn't really benefit you at all. If their prospect was necessary for all parties involved to go ahead with the trade, then they just made Seattle better this season, Toronto better for the future, and they stayed about even. It just seems pointless to ever intentionally help another team get better without you doing the same. Some trades make sense when each team has a surplus of talent in one area and a void somewhere else, but when you have 2 voids and you fill one by hurting the other it's just pointless.
Overall the trade is really the biggest one I can remember in MLB in my lifetime. 2 Cy Young winners traded places along with 3 of the top 50 prospects from mlb.com. I'm excited to see what will happen next season when all the pieces get put in to place. Can Roy Halladay win 25 games in the NL? Will Cliff Lee be the piece that vaults Seattle to the top of a weak AL West? How long until the pieces Toronto acquired begin to make an impact at the major league level? Will Billy Beane make me look like a jackass after this season or in the future? I can't wait to find out.
So the first question is who made out best in this deal. Well for my money it has to be the Blue Jays. They got 2 top 50 prospects and a need position minor leaguer for a guy who didn't want to be there plus $6 million in cash. Drabek is one of the top pitching prospects out there, Brett Wallace can play both corner infield positions, and if d'Arnaud can hit .250 with 60 RBIs he'll be worth it. Halladay is a great pitcher, but he's 32, wanted tons of money, and was asking to be traded because he didn't want to be a part of a rebuilding team anymore.
The Phillies made out the 2nd best in the deal by getting a top end pitcher signed to a long term deal as well as 3 decent prospects from Seattle. While I don't know how long Halladay can continue to pitch at the level he is at, the underrated portion of this deal is that Lee is only a year younger. Halladay's experience in the brutal AL East will prepare him for just about anything the NL can throw at them. I'm not too familiar with the Seattle farm system, but if the prospects the Phillies get turn out anything like the ones the Orioles got in the Erik Bedard trade, the Phils will be set for a while.
Seattle seems to think they came out the best in this trade, and for the next season they probably did, but they continue to mortgage their future to gain a short term advantage. The 1-2 punch of Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee will make the AL West uneasy, but without a solid offense they can't really compete with the elite of the AL. Not to mention they are getting a 31 year old pitcher who has only had 2 good seasons ever (granted, they were the past 2, but still, if he falls back into his old form I wouldn't be completely shocked). The other problem with Lee is that there is almost no chance they can resign him next season. He wants to test free agency and get CC Sabathia money, which the Mariners most likely can't afford. So they are renting a pitcher for the season, and anything short of a World Series will be a disappointment. They will be lucky to just make the playoffs.
Oakland completes the trade by acquiring Michael Taylor for Brett Wallace. This trade seems just completely pointless. The A's need help and both the corner infield positions (Eric Chavez is getting old and isn't that good anymore, and their first basemen is non-existent) and in the OF, but why get involved in a trade that doesn't really benefit you at all. If their prospect was necessary for all parties involved to go ahead with the trade, then they just made Seattle better this season, Toronto better for the future, and they stayed about even. It just seems pointless to ever intentionally help another team get better without you doing the same. Some trades make sense when each team has a surplus of talent in one area and a void somewhere else, but when you have 2 voids and you fill one by hurting the other it's just pointless.
Overall the trade is really the biggest one I can remember in MLB in my lifetime. 2 Cy Young winners traded places along with 3 of the top 50 prospects from mlb.com. I'm excited to see what will happen next season when all the pieces get put in to place. Can Roy Halladay win 25 games in the NL? Will Cliff Lee be the piece that vaults Seattle to the top of a weak AL West? How long until the pieces Toronto acquired begin to make an impact at the major league level? Will Billy Beane make me look like a jackass after this season or in the future? I can't wait to find out.
Sunday, November 29, 2009
2010 Big Board: First Edition
So we are heading into conference championship weekend in college football, and with almost all regular season games finished, it's time to unveil The Anti-Sports Guy's first Big Board for the 2010 NFL Draft. The first edition will have 20 players, and will grow to 32 before the mock drafts start. I only include players who have the opportunity to go into next year's draft, along with some info and reasoning.
1. Ndamukong Suh: DT, Nebraska
Suh has been by far the most impressive player I have seen this season. Now I don't have game film from the Arkansas State game, or the Louisiana-Lafayette game, but I do know, I've watched him play 3 times, and all 3 times he dominated the line of scrimmage on every play. He's a player that must be accounted for on every snap, because not only can he stuff the run and pass rush, he can cover in zone and has 4 career INTs. Being versatile enough to play in 3-4 and 4-3, he very possibly could be the first overall selection.
2. Eric Berry: S, Tennessee
Berry, a junior, should declare after this season, even after having only 2 INTs this season, down from 7 last year. Defenses have left him alone for the most part, but he still impacts the running game. This time last year I would never have had Berry above Taylor Mays, but he's done nothing but impress me with his overall safety play. He is a hybrid cover/hitting safety, and can change the game at any point.
3. Sam Bradford: QB, Oklahoma
Yes, I understand that he's hurt, and that it's his shoulder, but technology has advanced, and he could be healthy in plenty of time. I think Bradford needs to sit a year or two, and throwing him into a bad offense (Browns, Rams, Raiders...) could really hinder his development. The concerns that he hasn't spent enough time under center are valid, and a main reason for the extra year of development. Still, he has the accuracy and poise that you can't teach. His leadership qualities aren't quantifiable, but important to his high ranking.
4. Rolando McClain: LB, Alabama
Plain and simple, McClain is a player. He always seems to be around the ball, and hits you in the mouth every chance he gets. I'm not sure how he will measure out at the combine, but the game film should be more than sufficient to give him a high draft spot. It's a big comparison, but I could see him playing in the same mold as Ray Lewis, maybe without the stabbing.
5. Russell Okung: OT, Oklahoma St.
Probably the best comparison I can think of is Ryan Clady. He needs to add about 20 pounds to his frame while keeping his speed, but at 6'8" (some sites have him around 6'5", but his ESPN profile is what I'm going by), he will be an imposing force. The offensive tackle class this year pales in comparison to the past few, but Okung will benefit from it.
6. Taylor Mays: S, USC
A favorite of mine for a few years, Mays has fallen off a bit, and really isn't much of a cover safety. However, he has recovery speed, and a ferocious hitting ability. Mays is made in the mold of the great safeties at USC like Ronnie Lott and Dennis Smith. He definitely won't go this high unless he dominates every phase of the combine, but I think in the perfect system he will develop into a top tier safety.
7. Dez Bryant: WR, Oklahoma St.
My 2nd Cowboy, and possibly a surprise to many, but as far as talent goes this guy could be top 3. Bryant is big, fast, strong, and has great hands. If not for an unfortunate incident with Deion Sanders, Bryant would be dominating the college football landscape, and might have helped save Zac Robinson from total humiliation at the hands of Oklahoma. His off the field problems will disappear if he shows up in shape and does well in Indy.
8. Gerald McCoy: DT, Oklahoma
Now my 2nd Sooner appears. McCoy is a player that I've seen be rated much higher, and I'm not exactly sure why. He isn't the best DT in his conference, Suh is, and he doesn't affect the game nearly as much as many other players. He's big, but not massive, and isn't a dominate inside pass rusher. All that said, he is a great player who will be very good in the NFL for years, just not worth a top 5 selection.
9. Joe Haden: CB, Florida
Florida's best player this year has been Tim Tebow, no doubt about that, but Tebow just doesn't translate to the NFL. Haden, however, has the speed and instincts that do translate well to the NFL. He's not quite 6' tall, but is big enough. I worry a little about open field tackling, but he probably will be a nickel back to start his career, so his tackling can develop while he continues to hone his coverage skills.
10. Jake Locker: QB, Washington
Jake Locker will probably be the first QB taken in next year's draft if he opts to go. This guy will be a workout warrior at the combine, and will impress the scouts very much like Mark Sanchez (Steve Sarkisian is his coach, who was at USC last year). I worry that he will be asked to do too much too soon though. Of the QBs I've seen this year, I think Locker could have the most immediate impact, but if he isn't handled right, could turn into a punching bag in the way David Carr did. The greats rebound from that kind of abuse, but it's early to say that he will be great.
11. George Selvie: DE, South Florida
Before you tell me he's the 2nd best DE on his own team, remember that Selvie has been dominating college football since he was a freshman. He commands a double or triple team on every pass play, and can still disrupt the run. He has 61 TFL in his career, which speaks to his ability to make plays other than sacks. While I think he will be a tweener DE/OLB, I think his best role is at OLB as a pro in a 3-4, where he can rush the passer most downs, and work on his coverage as he matures.
12. Sergio Kindle: OLB/DE, Texas
The kind of player that can use a variety of moves to get to the QB. He's big enough to put a hand on the ground in pass rushing situations and go 1 on 1 against a tackle, and agile enough to move around in space. His past DUI will be a sticking point for some teams and probably hurt his stock. If he puts on a few more pounds I think he can move down permanently to DE, but at his current size a combo player is really his best situation.
13. Terrence Cody: DT, Alabama
This is a conditional placement here assuming that he actually plays up to his potential in the NFL. Cody is a mountain, and can clog up any hole. When he wants to be I truly believe he is the 2nd best player in this draft. However, he gets lazy at times and decides to not affect the game the way he can. He plays very much like Shaun Rogers. However, I see Cody as a late 1st round pick, or at best around 14-18, so he will likely be going to a better team than Rogers has ever played for. Hopefully he can get a good mentor in the pros to bring out his tremendous talent.
14. Trent Williams: OT, Oklahoma
The third of Oklahoma's big 4, he can move well and protect the QB as well as run block. There is a concern that he hasn't logged enough time at LT to be projected this high since Phil Loadholt played his entire career at OU at the LT spot. Still, Williams will impress scouts with his mobility and strength and should find himself at the top half of the first round.
15. Brandon Spikes: ILB, Florida
Spikes has seen his stock drop from a top 5 player to now 15th on the big board due to a less than stellar senior year. The eye gouge attempt on Washaun Ealey didn't help his cause either, labeling him as a dirty player. Still, he plays well in both phases, and truly excels in pursuit. He hits and wraps ball carriers and very rarely misses a tackle. He makes his presence know and moves well from sideline to sideline. I think playing ILB he may fall a la Rey Maualuga in the draft, but will be a great performer.
16. Carlos Dunlap: DE, Florida
Back to back Gators here, and Dunlap really should be higher. I'm keeping him back because I'm curious to see how missing the SEC championship game will affect him in the bowl game. He is an all around DE, and could play in a 4-3 or 3-4 at DE. In nickel/dime situations I could see him moving in to DT as well. He is big and strong and should translate well into any scheme. But again, something like this could be a mental block, and hopefully by the next big board he'll be in the top 10.
17. Golden Tate: WR, Notre Dame
I really don't like Notre Dame, but Tate is the best player on that team, and the best active WR in the FBS right now. He makes Jimmy Clausen look good, and that's an accomplishment in itself. His most underrated quality is his ability to come back to an underthrown ball and understand how to make the difficult catch in traffic. He will be an asset to any team that gets him.
18. Earl Thomas: S, Texas
Thomas has been a ball hawk all season, and seems to step up in the biggest games of the season with big plays. He had 4 games without an INT, and they were all against teams that were beaten by at least 32. That tells me that he shows up in the moments where his team needs him, and he takes the necessary risks. Thomas could be the best safety of the 3 in the top 20, but he's still young, and as a redshirt sophomore he might benefit from going back another year.
19. Jermaine Gresham: TE, Oklahoma
The final of Oklahoma's big 4. Gresham is hurt, which hurt him here as he falls down without the ability to see him play this year. This is a situation where he really hurt himself by coming back this season as opposed to coming out last year. He's still the first TE that will come off the board, and the most talented one in college football. I worry about his ability to stay in during running downs coming from the shotgun spread offense in OU, but I think his pass catching ability will hold him over until he improves there.
20. Jerry Hughes: DE, TCU
The 7th defensive lineman in the top 20 is a player who I thought would go high last year, and really hasn't disappointed me this season. He's had 26 sacks the past 2 years combined and has been by far the best player on an extraordinary defense. His only problem is that he doesn't get the opportunity to play the same competition as these other players, so he looks better than he may actually be. I still think Hughes can play well at the next level and will be a great value at any point past pick 15.
Notable exclusions:
Tim Tebow: He fits my mold for great QBs. If you win in college, then you'll win in the pros. The problem is, I don't believe he'll get the chance to play QB in the NFL, which lowers his status on the big board. As a TE, he's maybe 2nd or 3rd round material, but as a QB he's mid to late 1st round, but I'm in the minority there.
Colt McCoy: Again, perfect for my mold, but he's right now 21, and a 21 person big board just sounds stupid. He will be a very good player.
Jimmy Clausen: Can't throw under pressure as a result of his lack of dealing with it until 10th grade, as he played 7 on 7 ball before then. In the NFL he must process faster than he's ever had to, and he won't survive.
All RBs: C.J. Spiller, Jahvid Best, Toby Gerhart, and Anthony Dixon could all crack the top 32, or even the top 20, but as of right now, they just aren't as good as the other players here.
1. Ndamukong Suh: DT, Nebraska
Suh has been by far the most impressive player I have seen this season. Now I don't have game film from the Arkansas State game, or the Louisiana-Lafayette game, but I do know, I've watched him play 3 times, and all 3 times he dominated the line of scrimmage on every play. He's a player that must be accounted for on every snap, because not only can he stuff the run and pass rush, he can cover in zone and has 4 career INTs. Being versatile enough to play in 3-4 and 4-3, he very possibly could be the first overall selection.
2. Eric Berry: S, Tennessee
Berry, a junior, should declare after this season, even after having only 2 INTs this season, down from 7 last year. Defenses have left him alone for the most part, but he still impacts the running game. This time last year I would never have had Berry above Taylor Mays, but he's done nothing but impress me with his overall safety play. He is a hybrid cover/hitting safety, and can change the game at any point.
3. Sam Bradford: QB, Oklahoma
Yes, I understand that he's hurt, and that it's his shoulder, but technology has advanced, and he could be healthy in plenty of time. I think Bradford needs to sit a year or two, and throwing him into a bad offense (Browns, Rams, Raiders...) could really hinder his development. The concerns that he hasn't spent enough time under center are valid, and a main reason for the extra year of development. Still, he has the accuracy and poise that you can't teach. His leadership qualities aren't quantifiable, but important to his high ranking.
4. Rolando McClain: LB, Alabama
Plain and simple, McClain is a player. He always seems to be around the ball, and hits you in the mouth every chance he gets. I'm not sure how he will measure out at the combine, but the game film should be more than sufficient to give him a high draft spot. It's a big comparison, but I could see him playing in the same mold as Ray Lewis, maybe without the stabbing.
5. Russell Okung: OT, Oklahoma St.
Probably the best comparison I can think of is Ryan Clady. He needs to add about 20 pounds to his frame while keeping his speed, but at 6'8" (some sites have him around 6'5", but his ESPN profile is what I'm going by), he will be an imposing force. The offensive tackle class this year pales in comparison to the past few, but Okung will benefit from it.
6. Taylor Mays: S, USC
A favorite of mine for a few years, Mays has fallen off a bit, and really isn't much of a cover safety. However, he has recovery speed, and a ferocious hitting ability. Mays is made in the mold of the great safeties at USC like Ronnie Lott and Dennis Smith. He definitely won't go this high unless he dominates every phase of the combine, but I think in the perfect system he will develop into a top tier safety.
7. Dez Bryant: WR, Oklahoma St.
My 2nd Cowboy, and possibly a surprise to many, but as far as talent goes this guy could be top 3. Bryant is big, fast, strong, and has great hands. If not for an unfortunate incident with Deion Sanders, Bryant would be dominating the college football landscape, and might have helped save Zac Robinson from total humiliation at the hands of Oklahoma. His off the field problems will disappear if he shows up in shape and does well in Indy.
8. Gerald McCoy: DT, Oklahoma
Now my 2nd Sooner appears. McCoy is a player that I've seen be rated much higher, and I'm not exactly sure why. He isn't the best DT in his conference, Suh is, and he doesn't affect the game nearly as much as many other players. He's big, but not massive, and isn't a dominate inside pass rusher. All that said, he is a great player who will be very good in the NFL for years, just not worth a top 5 selection.
9. Joe Haden: CB, Florida
Florida's best player this year has been Tim Tebow, no doubt about that, but Tebow just doesn't translate to the NFL. Haden, however, has the speed and instincts that do translate well to the NFL. He's not quite 6' tall, but is big enough. I worry a little about open field tackling, but he probably will be a nickel back to start his career, so his tackling can develop while he continues to hone his coverage skills.
10. Jake Locker: QB, Washington
Jake Locker will probably be the first QB taken in next year's draft if he opts to go. This guy will be a workout warrior at the combine, and will impress the scouts very much like Mark Sanchez (Steve Sarkisian is his coach, who was at USC last year). I worry that he will be asked to do too much too soon though. Of the QBs I've seen this year, I think Locker could have the most immediate impact, but if he isn't handled right, could turn into a punching bag in the way David Carr did. The greats rebound from that kind of abuse, but it's early to say that he will be great.
11. George Selvie: DE, South Florida
Before you tell me he's the 2nd best DE on his own team, remember that Selvie has been dominating college football since he was a freshman. He commands a double or triple team on every pass play, and can still disrupt the run. He has 61 TFL in his career, which speaks to his ability to make plays other than sacks. While I think he will be a tweener DE/OLB, I think his best role is at OLB as a pro in a 3-4, where he can rush the passer most downs, and work on his coverage as he matures.
12. Sergio Kindle: OLB/DE, Texas
The kind of player that can use a variety of moves to get to the QB. He's big enough to put a hand on the ground in pass rushing situations and go 1 on 1 against a tackle, and agile enough to move around in space. His past DUI will be a sticking point for some teams and probably hurt his stock. If he puts on a few more pounds I think he can move down permanently to DE, but at his current size a combo player is really his best situation.
13. Terrence Cody: DT, Alabama
This is a conditional placement here assuming that he actually plays up to his potential in the NFL. Cody is a mountain, and can clog up any hole. When he wants to be I truly believe he is the 2nd best player in this draft. However, he gets lazy at times and decides to not affect the game the way he can. He plays very much like Shaun Rogers. However, I see Cody as a late 1st round pick, or at best around 14-18, so he will likely be going to a better team than Rogers has ever played for. Hopefully he can get a good mentor in the pros to bring out his tremendous talent.
14. Trent Williams: OT, Oklahoma
The third of Oklahoma's big 4, he can move well and protect the QB as well as run block. There is a concern that he hasn't logged enough time at LT to be projected this high since Phil Loadholt played his entire career at OU at the LT spot. Still, Williams will impress scouts with his mobility and strength and should find himself at the top half of the first round.
15. Brandon Spikes: ILB, Florida
Spikes has seen his stock drop from a top 5 player to now 15th on the big board due to a less than stellar senior year. The eye gouge attempt on Washaun Ealey didn't help his cause either, labeling him as a dirty player. Still, he plays well in both phases, and truly excels in pursuit. He hits and wraps ball carriers and very rarely misses a tackle. He makes his presence know and moves well from sideline to sideline. I think playing ILB he may fall a la Rey Maualuga in the draft, but will be a great performer.
16. Carlos Dunlap: DE, Florida
Back to back Gators here, and Dunlap really should be higher. I'm keeping him back because I'm curious to see how missing the SEC championship game will affect him in the bowl game. He is an all around DE, and could play in a 4-3 or 3-4 at DE. In nickel/dime situations I could see him moving in to DT as well. He is big and strong and should translate well into any scheme. But again, something like this could be a mental block, and hopefully by the next big board he'll be in the top 10.
17. Golden Tate: WR, Notre Dame
I really don't like Notre Dame, but Tate is the best player on that team, and the best active WR in the FBS right now. He makes Jimmy Clausen look good, and that's an accomplishment in itself. His most underrated quality is his ability to come back to an underthrown ball and understand how to make the difficult catch in traffic. He will be an asset to any team that gets him.
18. Earl Thomas: S, Texas
Thomas has been a ball hawk all season, and seems to step up in the biggest games of the season with big plays. He had 4 games without an INT, and they were all against teams that were beaten by at least 32. That tells me that he shows up in the moments where his team needs him, and he takes the necessary risks. Thomas could be the best safety of the 3 in the top 20, but he's still young, and as a redshirt sophomore he might benefit from going back another year.
19. Jermaine Gresham: TE, Oklahoma
The final of Oklahoma's big 4. Gresham is hurt, which hurt him here as he falls down without the ability to see him play this year. This is a situation where he really hurt himself by coming back this season as opposed to coming out last year. He's still the first TE that will come off the board, and the most talented one in college football. I worry about his ability to stay in during running downs coming from the shotgun spread offense in OU, but I think his pass catching ability will hold him over until he improves there.
20. Jerry Hughes: DE, TCU
The 7th defensive lineman in the top 20 is a player who I thought would go high last year, and really hasn't disappointed me this season. He's had 26 sacks the past 2 years combined and has been by far the best player on an extraordinary defense. His only problem is that he doesn't get the opportunity to play the same competition as these other players, so he looks better than he may actually be. I still think Hughes can play well at the next level and will be a great value at any point past pick 15.
Notable exclusions:
Tim Tebow: He fits my mold for great QBs. If you win in college, then you'll win in the pros. The problem is, I don't believe he'll get the chance to play QB in the NFL, which lowers his status on the big board. As a TE, he's maybe 2nd or 3rd round material, but as a QB he's mid to late 1st round, but I'm in the minority there.
Colt McCoy: Again, perfect for my mold, but he's right now 21, and a 21 person big board just sounds stupid. He will be a very good player.
Jimmy Clausen: Can't throw under pressure as a result of his lack of dealing with it until 10th grade, as he played 7 on 7 ball before then. In the NFL he must process faster than he's ever had to, and he won't survive.
All RBs: C.J. Spiller, Jahvid Best, Toby Gerhart, and Anthony Dixon could all crack the top 32, or even the top 20, but as of right now, they just aren't as good as the other players here.
Friday, November 6, 2009
How the World Series Was Lost
So after having time to digest the happenings of the World Series, I can only blame one person for the Phillies loss to the Yankees: Charlie Manuel. It was Manuel's decision to pitch Pedro in both game 2 and 6 even though Cole Hamels was clearly the 2nd best pitcher on the team, whether he played the part or not. He left Pedro in too long in game 2, pulling his best Grady Little. He never should have thrown him out there with the series on the line in game 6. The most perplexing part is that Pedro started these games even though he was at best the 5th starting pitcher on the team. Where was J.A. Happ during this postseason? The bullpen is where Manuel decided his 12-4 pitcher (2.96 ERA in 166.0 IP) needed to be. Since his first start on May 23rd, Happ had only failed to go 5+ innings once, and that was on September 18 when he left for "precautionary reasons" after a strained oblique earlier in the season. His worst game of the season was a 5.2 inning outing in which he gave up 5 ER with 6 BB. That was in June against Boston, and most of his poor starts came earlier in the season. Once he got on track he was lights out. Pedro on the other hand was a shell of his former self. Depending on which birth certificate you believe, Pedro is at youngest 38, but more likely about 42. He has 34 regular season starts the past 3 years, and has played admirably for his age, but still not great. But the Pedro/Happ debate was not the only thing Manuel screwed up. He threw out an ice cold, unproven Ben Francisco 12 times, and got 1 walk, 0 hits, 2 Ks, and 1 GIDP. Matt Stairs went 1 for 10 with 2 walks, and along with Pedro proved that age does matter, and in the (hopefully) post-steroid era players have a natural regression during their mid-30s that shouldn't be ignored. Manuel seemed to ignore his other bench players who may have actually done something. In limited appearances Eric Bruntlett and Paul Bako had better BAs than Matt Stairs. Stairs' perceived value was his ability to hit home runs, but in 129 plate appearances this season, he hit 5. If Joe Girardi faced criticism for his over-managing of his team, Manuel needed the same criticism for under-managing his. Also, just for fun, will someone please tell Jimmy Rollins that his role as a leadoff hitter is to get on base, not to try and swing for the fences. You need a better OBP than .296, or you need to hit 2nd or 5th in the lineup and let Victorino move to leadoff. (By the way, of the Phillies regular starters, Rollins had the lowest OBP, lower than Carlos Ruiz, lower than Pedro Feliz, and that is pathetic)
One final note, Bob Sanders just makes my argument for the most overrated player in the NFL look much better. One game played this season and he goes on the IR. Thank you.
One final note, Bob Sanders just makes my argument for the most overrated player in the NFL look much better. One game played this season and he goes on the IR. Thank you.
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